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Mid-Day Report: Markets Remained Cautious as Greek Election ApproachesTrading is rather dull today as traders are lightening up positions ahead of Greek election. EUR/USD stays above 1.26 level at the time of writing but there is no follow through buying. Indeed, most major pairs are stuck in range except that Aussie looks a touch stronger than others. Meanwhile, yen crosses are also starting to feel heavy today as yen is buoyed by expectation of additional supporting measures from world central banks. Spanish 10 year yield eased mildly but remained close to 7% level while Italian 10 year yield yield also struggled 6% level. On the data front, US empire state manufacturing index dropped to 2.3 in June, TIC capital flow dropped to 25.6b in April, industrial production dropped -0.1% in May. Canada manufacturing shipments dropped -0.8% mom in April. Eurozone trade surplus widened to EUR 6.2b in April. UK trade deficit widened to GBP -10.1b in April. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 79.26; (P) 79.50; (R1) 79.71; More... As noted before, USD/JPY's recovery from 77.66 could have finished at 79.79 already. Intraday bias remains on the downside for a test on 77.66. Break will confirm resumption of whole fall from 84.17 and should target 75.56/76.02 support zone. As noted before decline from 84.17 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure yet. We'll be cautious on bottoming signal as it enters into 75.56/76.02 support zone, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, above 79.79 will dampen this bearish case and indicate that rebound from 77.66 is resuming for 80.29 and above. |
| Special Reports |
SNB Left Monetary Policy Unchanged, Reaffirmed To Defend EURCHF FloorThe SNB announced to leave the target range for the three-month Libor unchanged at 0.00-0.25%. The central bank also reiterated to 'maintain the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro and will enforce it with the utmost determination'. Policymakers viewed that Switzerland’s economy remain 'exceptionally high' and warned that current level of Swiss franc remained too high. The SNB pledged to take any measures to defend the EUR/CHF floor. RBNZ Left OCR unchanged but Lowered Growth OutlookThe RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5% in June although it noted that New Zealand's economy has weakened a little since the March MPS. The central bank has postponed its first rate hike from late this year to next but the overall interest rate track is just slightly lower. GDP growth forecasts were lower this year and as an average over the coming 3 years. Concerning future monetary policy outlook, we believe the RBNZ would keep the door open for further easing if the macroeconomic situation deteriorates further. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: Dollar continued to ahead south since Tokyo trading on risk aversion and stop-hunting, verbal warnings of yen's strength from MOF and BOJ officials (PM Noda also joined later today) had little impact on the headline pair. At the moment, offers are noted at 79.05-10 and further out at 79.45-50 with stops placed above 79.55 and combination of offers and stops remains at 79.80-90. On the downside, some bids are reported at 78.40-50 and more buying interests in good size should emerge around 78.00-10 with stops building up below 77.90 and further out at 77.50-60. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Hold short entered at 1.2645Although the single currency extended this week’s rise from 1.2443 to as high as 1.2647 earlier in Asia, as price has retreated from there, retaining our broad consolidative view and mild downside bias remains for weakness to 1.2585-90, then the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.2564), however, break of the lower Kumo (now at 1.2526) is needed to confirm top is formed Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Stand asideAlthough the Australian dollar has continued to move higher after breaking indicated resistance at 1.0010, suggesting the rise from 0.9581 low is still in progress and a stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.0080 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.0100-10 and price should falter well below 1.0150-55 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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