Monday, June 18, 2012

Action Insight Daily Report 6-18-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Risk Markets Jumped as Pro-Bailout Parties Won Greece Elections, Yen and Dollar Pressured

Risk markets opened the week higher on news that Greece would temporarily avoid a Euro exit as the pro-bailout parties won enough seats to secure a majority in the parliament after Sunday's elections. The New Democracy claimed 30.1% of votes or 80 seats, plus 50 seats bonus for victory. Socialist Pasok took 12.6% or 33 seats. Thus, the total for the pro-bailout parties is 163 seats, which was well enough to secure majority in the 300 seats parliament. Anti-austerity Syriza came in second with 71 seats. EUR/USD spiked higher to 1.2747 before treating back below 1.27 level at the time of writing. AUD/USD also dumped to 1.0134 before retreating mildly. One development to note is that the Japanese yen is the weakest one on reaction to the Greek news and was sharply lower across the board. This should reflect reduced expectation and need of immediate and coordinated stimulus from world central banks as the Greek situation stabilized for now.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 98.96; (P) 99.65; (R1) 100.23; More

EUR/JPY opened the week sharply higher today and even though it's still being limited below 100.90 temporary top, current momentums suggests that the cross will likely take out this resistance. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for the moment. Break of 100.90 will extend the corrective rise from 95.64 towards 61.8% retracement of 108.00 to 95.64 at 103.27. Meanwhile, on the downside, break of 98.53 will indicate that such correction is already finished and should flip bias back to the downside for retesting 95.64 first.

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Special Reports

Pro-Bailout Parties Win Greek Election. Real Problems Remain

The latest general election in Greece alleviated market concerns that the debt-ridden country would abandon the fiscal tightening measures and leave the Eurozone as, according to exit polls and official projections, New Democracy came first and the pro-bailout parties are likely to secure enough seats to control the parliament. The single currency and risk assets buoyed as the situation in Greece is temporarily stabilized. However, uncertainty indeed remains. How would the new government negotiate with the EU/IMF regarding the austerity measures? How would the country catch up with its fiscal tightening, as Greece is far off track from the targets agreed previously? Would other EU members still want Greece to stay in the Eurozone if it consistently fails to achieve its targets? There are no immediate answers to these questions and are expected to threaten the outlook the Eurozone economic as well as the euro in the medium to long term.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices M/M Jun 1.00% 0.00%
05:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Economic Report
12:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Apr 3.41B -2.08B
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Jun 28 29
G20 Meeting
 

Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency opened higher on smooth Greek election results which saw the New Democrats winning, an intra-day high of 1.2748 was hit and although price retreated to 1.2672 on profit-taking, euro has rebounded again as traders prepositioned for positive reaction in European session. At the moment, bids are reported at 1.2670-80 and also at 1.2625-30 with some stops placed below 1.2620 and 1.2590 but sizeable stops only emerging below 1.2550. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 1.2725-30 and also at 1.2750 with some option triggers seen above latter level but fresh offers are expected from 1.2770 up to 1.2800.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 78.95

Despite last week’s selloff to 78.62, as the greenback found good support there and has staged a strong rebound, suggesting low is possibly formed and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for test of Friday’s high of 79.51, however, break of indicated resistance at 79.80-83 is needed to extend the rise from 77.65 for a stronger retracement of recent decline to psychological resistance at 80.00

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Stand aside

Although the single currency opened higher today and surged to 1.2748, as price has retreated from there, suggesting consolidation with mild downside bias would be seen, break of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2670) would bring retracement to 1.2635-40 but the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.2613) should limit downside and support at 1.2592 (Friday’s low) should hold, bring another rally later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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