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Daily Report: Risk Aversion Back as Markets Reassess Spanish Bailout, Concerns of Greece and Cyrus WeighMarkets are back into risk averse mode as Spain's banking bailout was reassessed by investors after risk rally. Fitch also downgraded two of Spain's biggest banks as economic outlook worsened. Cyprus, another Eurozone country, hinted yesterday that it may need to apply for an international by month end. Reuters reported that Eurozone officials have discussed the possibility of imposing capital control on Greece exit. All the negative news sent US stocks lower overnight and dragged Asian equities into negative territories. EUR/USD is back trading below 1.25 for the moment while yen is back below 100. The weekly gap open in EUR/USD now look more like a bull trap than anything. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0236; (P) 1.0276; (R1) 1.0351; More. USD/CAD fall was contained at 1.0200, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.9799 to 1.0445 at 1.0198 and recovered. Intraday bias is turned neutral again with focus back on 1.0354 minor resistance. Break there will indicate that pull back from 1.0445 has completed and would likely send USD/CAD through this resistance towards 1.0552/0656 zone. Meanwhile, below 1.0200 will now likely bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.0046 before the correction completes. |
| Special Reports |
Spain To Be The Fourth Country To Ask For BailoutOver the weekend, the Spanish Finance Minister Luis de Guindos announced that the country would request financial assistance from the EU for recapitalization of the Spanish banking system. While the final amount would be released after the results of 2 independent audits due June 21, the sum is estimated to be 100B euro, covering estimated capital requirements and additional safety margin. Both the EU and the IMF welcomed the request. For investors, the move is expected to lift market sentiment in the near-term. However, it does not resolve the long-term problem in the peripheral European economies that is the lack of growth prospect without which the 17-nation bloc would find it impossible to get out of the crisis. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite opening sharply higher yesterday, euro bears quickly came back and sold the single currency aggressively, bids and stops were cleared all the way down from 1.2600 down to 1.2450 as price dropped to as low as 1.2444 this morning. At the moment, bids from European names are reported at 1.2430-40 with stops building up below 1.2430, followed by mixture of bids and stops at 1.2400-10. On the upside, offers from various parties (including funds and Asian CBs) are lined up at 1.2505-10 and also from 1.2520 up to 1.2550, bigger sell orders are expected around 1.2600. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9520Despite intra-day brief rise to 0.9649, as dollar has retreated after failing to penetrate Friday’s high of 0.9657, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9573) cannot be ruled out, however, the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.9534) should limit downside and previous support at 0.9515 should attract renewed buying interests, bring another rise later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2600Although euro has recovered after holding above previous support at 1.2435 (Friday’s low) and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for rebound to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2549), yesterday’s selloff signals top is possibly formed at 1.2672, upside should be limited to the upper Kumo (now at 1.2598) and renewed selling interests should emerge around there, bring another decline. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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