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Daily Report: Dollar Trying to Recover after FOMC and China PMIAfter some volatility overnight, dollar seems to be gathering some momentum against other currencies in Asian session. Markets were somewhat disappointed by Fed's announcement to expand the Operation Twist Program by $267b. But there sentiments were lifted by German Chancellor's comment on the possibility of using European bailout funds to purchase Spain and Italian debts. Then but Asian markets were then back under pressure after China's manufacturing data. Asian equities are broadly lower at the time of writing and overall sentiments dragged down Aussie and loonie lower. Meanwhile, note that Euro's rebound against dollar overnight was relatively weak as EUR/USD was limited below 1.2747 high of the week, set on Monday. The common currency will face tests of Spain auction and Eurozone PMIs later today and will remain vulnerable. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0142; (P) 1.0183; (R1) 1.0234; More AUD/USD faced some resistance ahead of 1.0225 and retreated. A temporary top should be in place at 1.0223 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Below 1.0056 minor support will indicate short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, deeper decline could be seen back to 0.9820 support. On the upside, decisive break of 1.0225 will confirm completion of whole fall from 1.0852 at 0.9588. In such case, stronger rally could be seen through 1.0473 resistance to upper trend line resistance (now at 1.0742). |
| Special Reports |
Fed Extends Operation Twist By $267B, Downgrades Economic ForecastsAs we had anticipated, the Fed decided to extend operation twist through the year-end, instead of implementation of QE3, in June. With the amount of $267B, the pace of asset purchases and sales would remain unchanged. To our surprise but indeed a positive sign, the Fed maintain the reference of keeping interest rates at exceptionally low level at least through late 2014, rather than delaying the timing of the first rate hike. Economic forecasts were markedly downgraded. The Fed retained the possibility of further easing but this would depend on the job market situation. There were 2 additional members at the meeting, Governors Jeremy Stein and Jerome Powell, present at the meeting. BOE More Inclined To Increase Size Of Asset PurchasesThe June minutes for the BOE meeting unveiled that the members were more split on whether to increase asset purchases to stimulate economic growth. With 5 votes favoring no change while 4 votes supporting additional easing, it has become increasingly likely that the central bank would announce a raise in asset purchases at the next meeting. Inflation has moderated more than anticipated and should have created a more comfortable environment for easing policies. |
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: The greenback continued to move higher this morning on report of a U.S. think tank's suggestion to sell the yen, however, indicated sizeable offers from exporters remain at 79.75-85 with stops still seen above 79.90-00, followed by mixture of offers and stops located at 80.10-20. On the downside, bids from funds and Japanese investors raised to 79.35-40 and more buying interests from same parties are expected at 79.00-10 with stops building up below 78.80 and also 78.50 option barrier. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9550Despite yesterday’s brief fall to 0.9425, as the greenback has rebounded after holding above this week’s low of 0.9424, suggesting further consolidation above this level would be seen and break of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.9498) would bring recovery to 0.9545-50 but still reckon resistance at 0.9565 would cap upside, bring another decline later. A break of said support at 0.9424 is needed to confirm recent decline from 0.9771 top has resumed and extend weakness to 0.9407 Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Exit long entered at 78.95Although dollar has risen again this morning to 79.74, a break of indicated resistance at 79.80-83 is needed to retain bullishness and extend the rise from 77.65 for a stronger retracement of recent decline to psychological resistance at 80.00 and possibly towards 80.15, however, price should falter well below strong resistance at 80.56 and bring retreat later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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