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Daily Report: Risk Markets Lower as Moody's Downgraded Spain and Cyprus, Euro in RangeFinancial markets continue to stuck in tight range, gaining for a day and losing the other. Any rebound attempt was limited by the worry on Greece election on Sunday. Further than that, sentiments continued to be weighed down by downgrades. This time, Moody's lowered credit ratings of both Spain and Cyprus. Italy's bond auction will be closely watched today, together with job market data from US. Italy will try to sell as much as EUR 4.5b of bonds today, one maturing in February 2019 and the other in March 2020. But unless there are some drastic results, markets will likely continue to stay in range before the week closes. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 99.35; (P) 99.72; (R1) 100.16; More EUR/JPY is stuck in consolidative trading in tight range and intraday bias remains neutral. Focus remains on 98.53 minor support. Break there will indicate that correction from 95.64 is already completed and should flip bias back to the downside to send EUR/JPY below 95.64. Meanwhile, above 100.90 will extend such corrective rise to 61.8% retracement of 108.00 to 95.64 at 103.27 and possibly above. |
| Special Reports |
SNB To Show Determination Of Defending Currency FloorWhile is it almost certain that the SNB would leave the policy rate unchanged at the June meeting, the market is eager to know the central bank's stance on defending the currency floor. We expect policymakers would reiterate the commitment to enforce the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro. Amidst the highly uncertain and volatile situation in the Eurozone, the SNB's determination is especially important as the lack of which would be interpreted as an invitation for capital inflow and further appreciation of the Swiss franc. RBNZ Left OCR unchanged but Lowered Growth OutlookThe RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5% in June although it noted that New Zealand's economy has weakened a little since the March MPS. The central bank has postponed its first rate hike from late this year to next but the overall interest rate track is just slightly lower. GDP growth forecasts were lower this year and as an average over the coming 3 years. Concerning future monetary policy outlook, we believe the RBNZ would keep the door open for further easing if the macroeconomic situation deteriorates further. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency eased from overnight high of 1.2611 on profit-taking ahead of the release of eurozone core CPI at 09:00GMT, rising European bond yields continued to support euro yesterday and bids are still noted at 1.2520-30 as well as 1.2500 with stops building up below 1.2490 and 1.2470, followed by combination of bids and stops in good size at 1.2430-40. On the upside, offers from European names are tipped at 1.2610-20 and further out from 1.2650 up to 1.2670 with stops building up above 1.2680 and 1.2700. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2645Although the single currency eased after overnight rise to 1.2611, reckon the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2548) would limit downside and near term upside risk remains for a stronger rebound to 1.2625, however, if our view that top has been formed is correct, upside should be limited and renewed selling interests should emerge around 1.2645-50, bring another decline. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 78.75Dollar’s retreat after yesterday’s rebound to 79.75 has retained our view that further consolidation below indicated resistance at 79.80-83 would be seen and another corrective fall to 79.12 is likely, below this support would bring deeper pullback to 78.97 (previous resistance), however, renewed buying interests should emerge around 78.75, bring another rise later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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