Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Action Insight Daily Report 6-13-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Euro Treads Water as Focus Remains on Spanish and Italian Yields

Sentiments was lifted by revived QE3 hope on Chicago Fed Evans' comments yesterday, as well as ECB's support on European Commission's banking union proposal. DOW rose 162 pts overnight and was followed by broad based rebound in Asian equities. Nonetheless, strength of the risk rebound is so far very limited. European majors are also staying soft against dollar and yen even though there is no fresh selling yet. It should be noted that Evans is the most dovish Fed official and thus his comments should be discounted. And, markets are still in deep worry in the situation in Eurozone as Greece will have elections this Sunday, Spanish and Italian bond yields kept climbing.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8001; (P) 0.8040; (R1) 0.8069; More.

The break of 0.8049 minor support turns bias back to the downside fora test on 0.7949 low. As noted before, we believe that consolidation from 0.7949 has completed at 0.8156 already, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.8505 to 0.7949 at 0.8161. Fall from 0.9083 is possibly ready to resume. Below 0.7949 will target next important fibonacci level at 0.7782. However, above 0.8078 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring more consolidations above 0.7949 instead.

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Special Reports

RBNZ To Leave OCR At 2.5%

The RBNZ will likely leave the OCR unchanged at 2.5% at its June meeting. Despite the heightened uncertainty in the Eurozone and the loss of momentum in global economic recovery in recent weeks, policymakers have been hesitant to lower interest rates further due to concerns over renewed credit boom. The central bank would prefer to gauge the global and domestic situation with more information before adding further stimulus. Tactically, delaying a rate cut to a worse period would be more effective in bolstering growth and sentiment. That being said, the accompanying statement would deliver a message that the central bank would consider policy easing should the situation deteriorate further.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Apr 5.70% 1.60% -2.80%
0:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Jun 0.30% 0.80%
6:00 EUR German CPI M/M May F -0.20% -0.20%
6:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y May F 1.90% 1.90%
7:15 CHF Combined PPI M/M May -0.10% -0.10%
7:15 CHF Combined PPI Y/Y May -2.00% -2.30%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Apr -1.20% -0.30%
12:30 USD PPI M/M May -0.60% -0.20%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y May 1.30% 1.90%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M May 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y May 2.70% 2.70%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales May -0.20% 0.10%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos May 0.00% 0.10%
14:00 USD Business Inventories Apr 0.30% 0.30%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.1M
21:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50%
 

Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Although euro recovered in New York session on rising Spanish and Italian bond yields, once again selling interests emerged just above 1.2500 level and the single currency traded slightly lower this morning in Asia, however, decent bids from European names are still noted at 1.2450-60 as well as 1.2430-35 with stops building up below 1.2430, followed by mixture of bids and stops located at 1.2400-10. On the upside, offers from various parties are lined up at 1.2520-30 and further out at 1.2550, bigger sell orders are tipped at 1.2590-00 as well as 1.2620-30.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2600

As the single currency has recovered after falling to 1.2443 yesterday, retaining our view that further consolidation above support at 1.2435 (Friday’s low) would be seen with mild upside bias for rebound to 1.2525-30, then the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.2552), however, as this week’s selloff signals top has been formed at 1.2672, upside should be limited to 1.2570 and renewed selling interests should emerge around 1.2600, bring another decline.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 78.75

Although the greenback rebounded after holding above previous support at 79.12 yesterday and has continued to trade with a firm undertone, a firm break of indicated resistance at 79.80-83 is needed to retain bullishness and extend the rise from 77.65 for a stronger retracement of recent decline to psychological resistance at 80.00 but still reckon price would falter below previous chart point at 80.15.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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