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Mid-Day Report: Risk Sentiments Hit Further by Poor NFP, USD/JPY Broke 78Poor employment data in US gave risk markets a strong hit and sent European equities and US futures sharply lower. Commodity currencies tumble sharply against dollar. But the strongest on this risk aversion wave is the Japanese yen where USD/JPY dives through 78 level to as low as 77.71 so far. Non-farm payroll report showed merely 69k job growth in May, much less than expectation of 150k. That's also the worse number in a year. April's figure was also revised down from 115k to 77k. Unemployment rate edged up to 8.2%. Also released from US, personal spending and income rose 0.3% and 0.2% respectively while PCE core moderated to 1.8% yoy. Canadian GDP rose less than expected by 0.1% mom in April. Investors sentiments were generally hit by a string of weak economic data globally, including China, UK and now US. On the backdrop, the developments in Greece and Spain are still worrying. Focus will now turn to ISM manufacturing index to be released later in the US session. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 77.97; (P) 78.55; (R1) 78.89; More... USD/JPY drops to as low as 77.66 so far in early US session and intraday bias remains on the downside for 75.56/76.02 support zone. At this point, there is no clear sign of larger down trend resumption yet. Hence, we'd be cautious on reversal signal inside this 75.56/76.02 support zone. On the upside, above 78.64 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 80.29 is needed to signal near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: Although dollar dropped quite sharply to a 4-month low of 77.65 (tripped barriers at 78.00 and 77.75) in U.S. opening on soft U.S. job data, the pair quickly rebounded from there on rumors of BOJ rate checking as well as some Japanese banks were told not to keep short position of the headline pair over the weekend. At the moment, bids from Japanese investors are lined up from 78.00 down to 77.60 with barrier tipped at 77.50. On the upside, offers are still noted at 78.70-80 and also at 79.00-10 with some stops building up above 79.25-30. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2495Despite intra-day brief fall to 1.2293, as the single currency has rebounded after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. job reports, suggesting a minor low is formed and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.2407), then yesterday’s high of 1.2428 but renewed selling interests should emerge around previous support at 1.2495, bring another decline later. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 99.40Although euro has remained under pressure after breaking previous support at 97.04 and medium term downtrend should extend further weakness to 96.00, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 95.50 and reckon 95.00 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a strong rebound later. Above 98.00-05 would bring minor correction to 98.90-00 but renewed selling interests should emerge around 99.35-45 and bring another decline later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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