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Mid-Day Report: Euro Recovers as ECB Eases Collateral RulesAfter being soft for most of the day, Euro stages a mild recovery against dollar in early US session after ECB announced to ease the terms for collateral for access to the bank's lending. ECB said in a statement that it "reduced the rating threshold and amended the eligibility requirement for certain asset-backed securities" to broaden the "scop of measures to increase collateral availability" introduced back in late 2011. The changes involve acceptance of residential mortgage-backed securities, commercial mortgage rated as BBB, securities backed by loan to SMEs, auto loan and leasing and consumer finance asset-backed securities. And, some analysts are seeing the move as the a sign that ECB is close to having another LTRO. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2478; (P) 1.2593 (R1) 1.2654; More..... EUR/USD recovers mildly in early US session but strength is so far weak. And, the pais is still stuck in range 1.2747. Intraday bias remains neutral. With 1.2435 minor support intact another rebound cannot be ruled out yet. Above 1.2747 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.3282 to 1.2287 at 1.2902. Though, break of 1.2435 will indicate that such corrective rise is already completed and will flip bias back to the downside for 1.2287 and below. |
| Special Reports |
Fed Extends Operation Twist By $267B, Downgrades Economic ForecastsAs we had anticipated, the Fed decided to extend operation twist through the year-end, instead of implementation of QE3, in June. With the amount of $267B, the pace of asset purchases and sales would remain unchanged. To our surprise but indeed a positive sign, the Fed maintain the reference of keeping interest rates at exceptionally low level at least through late 2014, rather than delaying the timing of the first rate hike. Economic forecasts were markedly downgraded. The Fed retained the possibility of further easing but this would depend on the job market situation. There were 2 additional members at the meeting, Governors Jeremy Stein and Jerome Powell, present at the meeting. BOE More Inclined To Increase Size Of Asset PurchasesThe June minutes for the BOE meeting unveiled that the members were more split on whether to increase asset purchases to stimulate economic growth. With 5 votes favoring no change while 4 votes supporting additional easing, it has become increasingly likely that the central bank would announce a raise in asset purchases at the next meeting. Inflation has moderated more than anticipated and should have created a more comfortable environment for easing policies. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite falling to an intra-day low of 1.2519 in European session, the single current has rebounded on ECB's announcement of additional measures, stops at 1.2570-75 were tripped, however, fresh offers from various parties should emerge around 1.2600, then 1.2640-50 with stops building up above 1.2660 and 1.2700. On the downside, some stops are placed below 1.2519 and mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.2500, buying interests from Asian and Middle East names are expected at 1.2470-75 and 1.2440-50, followed by sizeable stops below 1.2440. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2615Yesterday’s selloff after breaking indicated support at 1.2638 (now turned into resistance) signals top has been formed at 1.2748 earlier this week and bearishness remains for further weakness to 1.2500, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.2470 and reckon support at 1.2440-45 would hold from here, bring rebound later. Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Buy at 1.0200The greenback has rebounded after falling to 1.0159 earlier this week, retaining our view that a temporary low is possibly formed there and consolidation with upside bias remains for test of 1.0327, however, break of indicated resistance at 1.0358 is needed to suggest this fall from 1.0446 has ended and bring further gain towards 1.0400. Looking ahead, only breach of said resistance at 1.0446 would confirm the rise from 0.9800 low has resumed Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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