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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Dollar Soft in Asia, But Risk Markets Getting CautiousDollar remains generally soft in Asia today but overnight's selloff halted as risk takers are starting to get cautious ahead of tomorrow's job market data from US. There has been rumors about an imminent announcement of Greek PSI deal but so far nothing have been confirmed yet. It's reported that while most details on the debt swap deals were completed, there is some fundamental difference between IMF and Germany that's holding the deal back. It's said that in IMF's view, PSI, which involves cutting the face value of EUR 200b of Greek debt, is insufficient to reduce the country's debt to 120% of GDP in 2020. And, IMF has raised the the need for so called OSI, or "official sector involvement" in parrallel to PSI, "private sector involvement", that is, sacrifices from ECB and other Eurozone governments. However, that faced strong opposition from Germany which requires the gap to be filled by deeper austerity in Greece rather than by funding from other Eurozone governments. Regarding the PSI deal, reportedly, the agreement comprises a 72% haircut, 3.6% coupon and a GDP warrant (which will pay creditors when GDP exceeds target) for private investors of Greek government debts. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 99.45; (P) 100.07; (R1) 100.90; More EUR/JPY's fall was contained at 99.25 and recovered. Intraday bias is neutral fort he moment. With 99.13 intact, rebound from 97.03 might extend further. Above 100.88 will will flip bias back to the upside and would likely extend the rebound from 97.03 towards falling trend line resistance (now at 106.15). Though, note again that break of 99.13 will confirm that corrective rebound from 97.03 is already completed at 102.20. Deeper fall should then be seen through 97.03 low to extend the whole decline from 123.31. |
| Special Reports |
2012 Forecast: AUD Boosted By Speculations Over Fed's QE3 In The Near-TermThe dovish January FOMC statement thrilled investors and boosted higher-yield currencies. Australian dollar was one of the beneficiaries. AUD soared against USD after the Fed pushed back the first expected rate hike to late-2014, from mid-2013 as projected in previous statements. Moreover, renewed speculations on QE3 have boosted AUD as well as other cyclical currencies. Australian dollar is expected to rise further in the near-term amid rising likelihood of monetary easing. In the medium- term, AUD will likely trade sub-parity against the USD but upside risks remain there for the commodity currency and any accommodative policy from China should help push the currency higher. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchCHF: Despite falling to as low as 0.9115 yesterday on dollar's broad-based weakness, indicated bids at 0.9100-10 (for protection of stops below 0.9100) limited downside and price has recovered from there in New York session in part due to the release of better-than-expected U.S. ISM manufacturing data. At the moment, fresh rumors if SNB bidding EUR/CHF (which slipped to as low as 1.2031 overnight) are circulating and more buying interest from French names are reported at 0.9090, 0.9070 and also 0.9050. On the upside, offers from U.S. big names are reported at 0.9190-00, followed by mixture of offers and stops at 0.9250-60. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 76.05As dollar has retreated again after meeting renewed selling around the Ichimoku cloud bottom, suggesting near term downside risk remains for recent decline to extend marginal weakness, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 76.00 and reckon 75.70/75 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a strong rebound to take place later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Stand asideYesterday’s strong rebound from 1.3026 suggests the correction from this week’s high of 1.3233 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for another test of yesterday’s high of 1.3218, however, a break of said resistance at 1.3233 is needed to confirm and bring resumption of recent upmove from 1.2624 low for further gain towards 1.3260-70, otherwise, choppy consolidation would take place. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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