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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Yen Selloff Continues as Crude Oil Extends RallyMarket's focus is turning back to yen selling today as USD/JPY breaches 80 psychological level. BoJ's ultra easing monetary policy is factor that contributes recent weakness in the Japanese yen and is there to stay. Another yen selling reason emerged earlier this week after Japan posted record trade deficit in January, with steep fall in exports to China. Meanwhile, as an oil import country and an export led economy, Japan is facing additional pressure from recent rally in oil prices. After, last year's natural disaster in Japan, only 5 out of 54 nuclear reactors are staying in operation and thus increasing the demand for energy imports. This, coupled by strength in oil prices, where WTI crude oil is trading above 106 for the moment, will likely worsen the trade balance of the country. WTI looks likely to test 114/115 level in near term based on current momentum and that could help take USD/JPY towards 85 level. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 79.57; (P) 79.70; (R1) 79.87; More... USD/JPY's rally extends further to as high as 80.08 even though upside momentum is diminishing mildly with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line. Intraday bias remains on the upside and current rise from 76.02, which is part of the rally from 75.56, is expected to target 61.8% retracement of 85.51 to 75.56 at 81.70 next. On the downside, below 79.30 will argue that a short term top is formed and bring some consolidations first, before staging another rally. |
| Special Reports |
EU Agrees On Second Greek Bailout Package Worth Of 130B EuroThe latest news is that EU finance ministers have eventually reached an agreement on the second Greek bailout package. The deal requires Greece to bring its debt down to 120.5% of GDP by 2020 from over 164% currently. The agreed reduction was similar to what was requested by the IMF. Moreover, according to Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg, private sector bondholders were expected to incur losses of 53.5% of nominal face value of their Greek bond holdings, up from the previously expected 50.0% nominal write-down. Investors welcomed the news and the euro jumped against the US dollar after the announcement. RBA Feels Comfortable With Current Monetary Stance As Growth Will Be Close To TrendThe RBA released minutes for the February meeting, explaining reasons for its decision to leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.25%, instead of a reduction of -25 bps as expected by the market. The central banks appeared comfortable with the domestic economic developments though these might also be affected by the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. It appears that the central bank will stand on the sideline in coming months but we are still of the view that a rate cut will materialize later this year especially if he AUD continues its recent advance. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency remained confined within a relatively narrow range in part due to cross-trading against both yen and sterling, profit-taking activities after the 130 billion euro Greek bailout package put pressure on euro and bids at 1.3210-20 were filled, however, buying interests are still noted at 1.3190-00 with stops remain below 1.3180 and 1.3150. On the upside, offers are tipped from 1.3250 up to 1.3280, followed by combination of offers and stops in good size at 1.3290-00 but fresh offers are reported further out at 1.3350-60. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5750Although cable has rebounded after intra-day fall to 1.5764, reckon the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5814) would limit upside and near term downside risk remains for the fall from 1.5880 to bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.5750, however, reckon 1.5736-41 (previous resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5655-1.5880) would limit downside and bring another rise later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3135Euro’s near term sideways trading is expected to continue and as long as resistance at 1.3293 (yesterday’s high) holds, risk of another corrective fall cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.3130-35 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2975-1.3293) and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would extend recent upmove to 1.3335-40 (50% projection of 1.2975-1.3277 measuring from 1.3186) Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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