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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Mid-Day Report: Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc Mildly Lower on Intervention TalksThe Japanese yen weakens mildly in otherwise dull market today. It's reported that government data released today showed Japan as carried out secret intervention in November. A total of JPY 1.02T was sold against US dollar in the first week of November. The last public intervention was on October 31, in scale of JPY 8.07T. Japan has recently stepped up rhetoric on intervention as USD/JPY approaches 75.56 historical low. But the volume of the voices was somewhat turned down after USD/JPY rebounded since last week. Intervention is always a threat in the Japanese. But after all, we'd maintain that barring unusual circumstances, further intervention would be unilateral and the impact of such interventions would be short lived. Any recovery in yen crosses are still viewed as selling opportunities for larger down trends. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 76.42; (P) 76.61; (R1) 76.73; More.... USD/JPY edges higher to 76.86 as recovery from 76.02 temporary low continues today. Further rebound could be seen to 55 days EMA (now at 77.09) and above. But after all, near term outlook remains bearish as long as 78.28 resistance holds. Whole decline from 79.52 is still in progress. Below 76.02 will resume such fall for a test on 75.56 low. |
| Special Reports |
RBA Unexpectedly Paused After 2 Successive Rate CutsThe RBA unexpectedly left the cash rate unchanged at 4.25% in February, in contrast with consensus of a rate cut by -25 bps. The decision, in spite of growing uncertainty in the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, indicated policymakers' confidence in China's demand and US' economic recovery. The Australian dollar soared after the announcement. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: Dollar edged higher today to 76.87 but indicated offers from exporters remain at 76.90-00 with mixture of offers and stops seen at 77.10-20 and more selling interest from same parties are lined up at 77.50-60. On the downside, mixture of bids and stops remains at 76.45-50 and more buying interests from Japanese investors are expected at 76.20 and also 76.00-10 (for protection of 76.00 option barrier). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Hold short entered at 1.5830Despite yesterday’s brief breach of 1.5750 support, lack of follow through selling and the subsequent rebound from 1.5730 suggest consolidation would be seen, however, as 1.5841 capped cable’s upside and has retreated again, retaining our bearishness for another corrective decline. A below said support at 1.5730 would add credence to our view that top has been formed at 1.5884 last week and bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.5701 support Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Hold long entered at 99.60As the single currency found renewed buying interest at 99.86 yesterday and has rebounded again, retaining our near term bullishness for another rebound, a sustained breach of 100.90-00 would signal the retreat from 102.21 has ended and bring a stronger rebound to 101.40-50, Looking ahead, a break of resistance at 102.21 is needed to extend the rise from 97.04 low (wave v bottom) for major correction of recent decline in wave (iv) to 102.50-55 and possibly towards 102.90-00, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond latter level and reckon 103.50-60 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a retreat later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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