Thursday, February 16, 2012

Action Insight Daily Report 2-17-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Crosses Extend Rally on Risk Appetite

The Japanese yen continues to be the biggest loser this week, in particular to commodity currencies, on risk appetite as well as the aftermath of BoJ's surprised additional easing. Yen crosses are hitting multi-month highs and maintaining solid upside momentum. Asian equities are broadly higher following the 123 pts rally in DOW overnight. DOW's close at 12904 was strong but nonetheless kept below this month's high of 12924 so far, i.e., staying in range. Meanwhile, S&P 500 is kept below last year's high of 1370.58. Thus, risk sentiments is still vulnerable for a reversal. Though, before that, the rally in yen crosses should continue.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 102.44; (P) 103.14; (R1) 104.35; More

EUR/JPY's rally resumed after retreat and reaches as high as 104.02 so far today. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 100% projection of 97.03 to 102.20 from 99.24 at 104.41. At this point, rebound from 97.03 is viewed as a correction only and hence we'll be cautious on reversal signal as EUR/JPY approaches falling trend line resistance (now at 105.23). Break of 101.92 support will argue that such rebound is finished and turn bias back to the downside for 99.24 support. However, sustained trading above the trend line will raise the possibility of reversal and will turn focus to 111.57 resistance first.

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Special Reports

FOMC Minutes Unveiled a Few Members Opted for More Asset Purchases

The FOMC minutes for the January meeting were as dovish as the policy statement suggested. Yet, the change in wordings suggested that there were fewer members demanding further easing. Policymakers noted that “strains in global financial markets continued to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook” and “a few members” observed that elevated unemployment and subdued inflation pressure could “warrant the initiation of additional securities purchases before long”. In December, it’s stated that “a number of members” judged additional purchases are warranted. In our opinion, QE3 remains possible for 2H12 despite recent improvements in economic indicators.

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China Hesitate to Act although It Reiterates to Support Eurozone

As the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone continues to deteriorate, EU financial ministers have been traveling abroad to seek assistance besides pulling funds among member nations. After German Chancellor's visit to Beijing earlier this month, Mr. Herman Van Rompuy, President of the European Council, and Mr. Jose Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission, discuss with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao at a China-EU summit on possible Chinese investment in the EU bailout fund. China's response sounded once positive with Premier Wen stated that it's in China's interest to see the Eurozone "maintain stability and prosperity" and "China is firm in supporting the EU side in dealing with the debt problems. We match our words with actions". His comments were echoed by PBOC's governor Zhou Xiaochuan who stated that "our state leaders promised European leaders that, amid the global financial crisis and the Europe sovereign debt crisis, China will not cut the proportion of euro exposure" and China "has always been confident in the euro and its future". Despite the reiterations, China has so far failed to commit an amount or a time of the investment. What are hindering China's move?

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
07:00 EUR German PPI M/M Jan 0.20% -0.40%
07:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Jan 3.10% 4.00%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Dec 2.3B -1.8B
09:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Jan -0.20% 0.60%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales Y/Y Jan 1.70%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel M/M Jan -0.20% 0.60%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel Y/Y Jan 0.60% 2.60%
12:00 CAD CPI M/M Jan 0.30% -0.60%
12:00 CAD CPI Y/Y Jan 2.30% 2.30%
12:00 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Jan 0.00% -0.50%
12:00 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Jan 1.90% 1.90%
13:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Jan 0.80%
13:30 USD CPI M/M Jan 0.30% 0.00%
13:30 USD CPI Y/Y Jan 2.80% 3.00%
13:30 USD CPI Core M/M Jan 0.20% 0.10%
13:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Jan 2.20% 2.20%
15:00 USD Leading Indicators Jan 0.50% 0.40%
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea update will resume on Tuesday - 21 Feb 2012.

Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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