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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Euro Mildly Lower as Focus Turned Back to GreeceEuro is mildly lower as the week starts as focus turned from economic data back to the situation in Greece. A pressing concern is the agreement on Troika's term for austerity. Greek coalition leaders failed to agree on the details of the terms demanded by international creditors after a five hour meeting with Prime Minister Papademos on Sunday. It's reported that while the principles to cut spending in 2012 by 1.5% of GDP, or EUR 3.3b, was agreed, the three party leaders' view on details differed. And there are two big issues left, labour and banks. Papademos then met with troika later on Sunday together with Finance Minister Venizelos and Labor Minister Koutroumanis. Now, the situation is, the three party leaders are required to give their first response to proposed measures by noon today so that it be taken into Euro working group in brussels. On Saturday, Eurozone finance ministers told Greece that it could not go ahead with the PSI debt swap deal unit the reforms are guaranteed. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0695; (P) 1.0744; (R1) 1.0817; More AUD/USD fails to extend recent again and retreats mildly today. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. But after all, near term outlook remains cautiously bullish with 1.0525 support intact. Recent rise is still in favor to continue. As noted before, prior break of 1.0752 serves as the first signal that consolidation pattern from 1.1079 is finished at 0.9663 and the larger up trend might be resuming. Above 1.0793 will turn bias to the upside for a test on 1.1079 high next. However, note that it's far from certain that the consolidation from 1.1079 is completed. And indeed, a break below 1.0525 support will flip bias back to the downside and possibly start another falling leg inside the consolidation pattern toward 0.9387 support level. |
| Special Reports |
RBA to Cut Interest Rates for Third Consecutive Time in FebruaryWe expect the RBA will reduce its cash rate by -25 bps to 4.0% at the February meeting. This third consecutive rate cut since November would bring the country's monetary policy to mildly accommodative from neutral. Given high uncertainty in global economic outlook and weaker tone in recent domestic developments (rising unemployment, benign inflation and appreciation in AUD), we believe a rate cut is justified. The RBA will release its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy and policymakers should use this opportunity to communicate more about its rationale of the new policy settings. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency slipped again after Friday's late rebound to 1.3168 and stops below 1.3060 were triggered, more stops are reported below 1.3050 and also 1.3020 with mixture of bids and stops located further out at 1.3000. On the upside, offers from various parties are tipped at 1.3100, 1.3140-50 with some stops seen above 1.3170 but larger sell orders are noted further out at 1.3200-10 with sizeable stops building up above 1.3220 and 1.3235-40. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 76.05Despite last week’s fall to 76.03, the subsequent rebound in part due to the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. job data has retained our view that low is possibly formed there and bullishness remains for a retracement of the intermediate fall from 78.29 and above 76.87 (previous support) would encourage for further gain towards 77.15-20, however, reckon upside would be limited to 77.75-80 Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3120As the single currency ran into heavy offers at 1.3206 last Friday and retreated quite sharply from there on dollar’s broad-based strength after the release of better-than-expected NFP, retaining our view that further choppy consolidation below last week’s high of 1.3233 would take place and weakness to 1.3050 is likely, however, only break of last week’s low at 1.3026 would confirm top has been formed there, bring retracement of recent rise from 1.2624 low to 1.3000 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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