Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-8-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Greece Optimism Continues to Lift Euro, Political Leaders to Meet Today

Euro remains firm against dollar on optimism that somehow, there would be a deal in some sort to help Greece avoid disorderly default in March even though the progress has been extremely slow and unsatisfactory. Greek Prime Minister Papademos is expected to meet with three party leaders today finally to agree on the austerity measures. That's a key in clearing the EUR 130b second bailout from EU IMF. The progress on PSI has be "constructive" has described by Papademos. Meanwhile, there were reports that ECB would accept some sort of haircut which could help Greece lower it's debt by EUR 11b. After all, nothing is solid yet. But somehow, when investors patience limit was far breached, they seem to be looking beyond Greece.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5820; (P) 1.5863; (R1) 1.5938; More.

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside and current rise from 1.5234 should be targeting to 1.6165 key cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.6746 to 1.5234 at 1.6168). Break will confirm that whole decline from 1.6746 has finished at 1.5234 already. On the downside, break of 1.5729 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish even in case of retreat.

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Special Reports

ECB To Stand On The Sideline While BOE To Extend Asset Purchases

Although Greece's PSI and its access to the new tranche of bailout fund dragged on, market sentiment appeared to have improved since the last ECB meeting. Moreover, reaction to the 3-year LTRO was positive while economic data over the past few weeks showed improvement. These should allow the ECB to keep the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and leave the unconventional monetary measures unchanged.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Dec 0.75T 0.63T 0.48T
0:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Jan 1.40% 1.70%
5:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Jan 44.1 47.4 47
6:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Jan 3.10% 3.10% 3.10%
7:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Dec 13.9B 14.1B 15.1B 14.9B
13:15 CAD Housing Starts Jan 191.5K 200.2K
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.9M 4.2M
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has continued to trade with a firm undertone in part due to persistent buying by Middle East names and bids from them are still noted at 1.3240-50 with some stops placed below 1.3230 but more buying interest should emerge around 1.3190-00 with more stops seen below 1.3160, 1.3100-10 and 1.3080. On the upside, mixture of offers and stops remains at 1.3100-10 and more option related offers are tipped from 1.3330 up to 1.3350 (related to 1.3350 barrier) with bigger sell orders expected at 1.3390-00.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 0.9140

Despite intra-day brief fall to 0.9106, lack of follow through selling on break of previous support at 0.9112 suggests consolidation would be seen and as long as said support holds, mild upside bias remains for another rebound to the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9167) and possibly to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.9196), however, break of resistance at 0.9227 (yesterday’s high) is needed to signal a temporary low is possibly formed

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Target met and buy again on pullback

Yesterday’s rally has justified our bullishness, our long position entered at 99.60 earlier finally met indicated target at 101.60 (with 200 points profit) and current breach of 102.21 resistance adds credence to our view that low at been formed at 97.04 (wave v bottom) and bullishness remains for this minor c leg of correction to take place for further gain to 102.90-00, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 103.50-60 and reckon 103.90-00 would hold

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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