Thursday, February 23, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-23-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Lifted by Solid German Ifo, Breaks 1.33 against Dollar

Euro strengthens today and breaches near term resistance against dollar with help from stronger than expected Germany Ifo. The business climate index rose to 109.2 in February, strongest number since last July and was above consensus of 108.8. The expectation component, which is a measurement of expectation for the coming six months, rose more than expected to 102.3 while the current assessment component also beat expectation and rose to 117.5. Economists said that the expectation index points to around 2% annual growth in the Germany economy. Meanwhile Q1 growth could be above 1% qoq. That is, the -0.2% contraction in Q4 was temporary and Germany is not in a technical recession.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3219; (P) 1.3242 (R1) 1.3274; More...

The break of 1.3321 resistance indicates that EUR/USD's rebound from 1.2625 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside and further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4246 to 1.2625 at 1.3627 next. On the downside, below 1.3186 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But retreat should be contained above 1.2974 support and bring another rise.

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Special Reports

BOE Minutes Unveiled 2 Member Favored More Asset Purchases

The BOE minutes for the February meeting unveiled that 2 (Adam Posen and David Miles) out of 9 members opted for more expansion in asset purchases than decided. The 2 dissenters to the current monetary policy saw a risk of a prolonged period of depressed demand which would cause inflation to fall materially below target in the medium-term. Also, the expected that further easing would alleviate the risks of increasing unemployment. The news raised speculations that the central may increase the amount of asset buying in May.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
09:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Feb 109.6 108.8 108.3
09:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Feb 117.5 116.5 116.3
09:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Feb 102.3 102 100.9
09:30 GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase Jan 38.1K 37.3K 36.2K 36.6K
11:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Feb -3 -13 -16
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 351K 355K 348K
15:00 USD House Price Index M/M Dec 0.40% 1.00%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -146B -127B
16:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.9M -0.2M

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: After hitting this year’s high of 1.3343 in European session, the single currency has retreated on disappointing eurozone GDP data and talk of Asian CBs selling ahead of 1.3350 (for protection of option barrier there) and offers from them are still noted from 1.3330 up to 1.3350 with stops building up above there but more selling interest is likely to emerge further out at 1.3390-00. On the downside, bids from Middle East names are expected at 1.3270 and also 1.3240-50 with stops building up below 1.3230 and 1.3200-10, sizeable stops remain below 1.3170-80.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9015

Although dollar has recovered after intra-day selloff to 0.9035 (just 1 tick above indicated projection level at 0.9034 - 50% projection of 0.9300-0.9083 measuring from 0.9145), reckon the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9085) would limit upside and bring another decline, below said support would extend one more fall, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9008 (61.8% projection) and bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Hold long entered at 1.0650

Despite intra-day marginal fall to 1.0597, lack of follow through selling and the subsequent rebound after holding above indicated support at 1.0590 has retained our bullishness and consolidation with upside bias remains for test of 1.0755 minor resistance but break of 1.0817 (this week’s high) is needed to confirm correction from 1.0845 has ended and bring a retest of this level.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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