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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Euro Firm after Greek Bailout ApprovalEuro remains firms today as Greece finally secured the long awaited EUR 130b bailout from EU finance ministers. The deal, which provides short term relief for Greece and aim to cut debt to GDP ratio from current 160% to 121% in 2020, was confirmed in a press conference in Brussels after a 13 hour marathon meeting between Eurozone finance ministers. The arrangement include a 53.5% voluntary write down of face value on bonds that private investor holds. And, according to the debt-swap arrangement, the coupon rate will be 2% in 2014 and rises to 3% in 2015-202 and then 4.3% after that. ECB will pass the profits of EUR 12b in Greek bonds purchased through its SMPP back to national governments as an indirect involvement. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 104.81; (P) 105.28; (R1) 105.90; More EUR/JPY's rally is still in progress and reaches as high as 105.96 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the upside and current rise could now extend towards 161.8% projection of 97.03 to 102.20 from 99.24 at 107.60. Note that the break of the falling trend line resistance (from 123.31) argues that recent fall is finished, with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 107.60 will target 111.57 resistance. On the downside, below 104.65 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But another rise will remain in favor as long as 101.92 support holds. |
| Special Reports |
EU Agrees On Second Greek Bailout Package Worth Of 130B EuroThe latest news is that EU finance ministers have eventually reached an agreement on the second Greek bailout package. The deal requires Greece to bring its debt down to 120.5% of GDP by 2020 from over 164% currently. The agreed reduction was similar to what was requested by the IMF. Moreover, according to Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg, private sector bondholders were expected to incur losses of 53.5% of nominal face value of their Greek bond holdings, up from the previously expected 50.0% nominal write-down. Investors welcomed the news and the euro jumped against the US dollar after the announcement. RBA Feels Comfortable With Current Monetary Stance As Growth Will Be Close To TrendThe RBA released minutes for the February meeting, explaining reasons for its decision to leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.25%, instead of a reduction of -25 bps as expected by the market. The central banks appeared comfortable with the domestic economic developments though these might also be affected by the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. It appears that the central bank will stand on the sideline in coming months but we are still of the view that a rate cut will materialize later this year especially if he AUD continues its recent advance. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency found renewed buying interest just below 1.3200 level and has risen again from 1.3186 to 1.3293 on news that EU finance minister reached deal on Greek bailout plan worth 130 billion euro (stops above 1.3285-90 were triggered), however, offers are still noted at 1.3300 with mixture of offers and stops seen at 1.3310-20, more selling interests (option related) are tipped further out at 1.3350-60 and also at 1.3390-00. On the downside, some bids are reported at 1.3230-40 and also 1.3190-00 with stops in good size building up below 1.3170-80, 1.3150 and further out at 1.3100. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3190Although the single currency has risen again after finding renewed buying interest above previous support at 1.3182, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.3335-40 (50% projection of 1.2975-1.3277 measuring from 1.3186) and risk from there has increased for a minor correction but still reckon decent demand would emerge again around the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.3190), bring another rise later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 80.25Although the greenback has maintained a firm undertone and recent upmove may extend further gain to psychological resistance at 80.00, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond previous resistance at 80.25 and bring retreat later. Below support at 79.35 would bring test of the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 79.13) but break there is needed to suggest a temporary top is possibly formed Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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