Monday, February 6, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-6-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sentiments Weighed Down by Greece

Global market sentiments are weighed down by worry that Greece might not be able to secure the EUR 130b bailout package from EU/IMF and would face disorderly default in March. Greek leaders gather today again after failing to complete the agreement on details of the austerity measures on Sunday despite having a five-hour long meeting with Prime Minister Papademos. While the principle of cutting 1.5% of GDP of spending in 2012 was agreed, there were issues unresolved, including banking and labor. EU leaders are stepping up the pressure on Greece to finish the details of reforms as French President Sarkozy said today that "time is running out" and Greece's commitment for bailout needs to be "concluded" and "signed". German Chancellor Merkel warned that "there can be no new Greece programme if agreement is not reached with the Troika".

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5759; (P) 1.5809; (R1) 1.5869; More.

GBP/USD dips further to 1.5729 so far today as consolidation from 1.5882 temporary top extends. More corrective trading would be seen. But again. near term outlook remains cautiously bullish with 1.5641 cluster support intact (38.2% retracement of 1.5234 to 1.5882). Above 1.5882 will target a test on 1.6165 key cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.6746 to 1.5234 at 1.6168). Break will confirm that whole decline from 1.6746 has finished at 1.5234 already. On the downside, below 1.5641 support flip bias back to the downside for 1.5234 support instead.

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Special Reports

RBA to Cut Interest Rates for Third Consecutive Time in February

We expect the RBA will reduce its cash rate by -25 bps to 4.0% at the February meeting. This third consecutive rate cut since November would bring the country's monetary policy to mildly accommodative from neutral. Given high uncertainty in global economic outlook and weaker tone in recent domestic developments (rising unemployment, benign inflation and appreciation in AUD), we believe a rate cut is justified. The RBA will release its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy and policymakers should use this opportunity to communicate more about its rationale of the new policy settings.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation M/M Jan 0.20% 0.50%
0:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Dec -0.10% 0.20% 0.00% 0.10%
9:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Feb -11.1 -16.5 -21.1
11:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Dec 1.70% 1.00% -4.80% -4.90%
15:00 CAD Ivey PMI Jan 57 63.5
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has remained under pressure and stops below 1.3050-60 were triggered, mixture of bids and stops at 1.3020-30 is now in focus, however, more buying interests from Middle East, Asian Cbs and U.S. investment banks are likely to emerge further out at 1.3000 (stops below) and also 1.2950 with bigger stops placed below 1.2930. On the upside, offers from various parties are lined up at 1.3090-00 and also at 1.3130, followed by combination of offers and stops located at 1.3160-70 with bigger stops building up above 1.3210 and 1.3235-40.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5800

Cable’s intra-day breach support at 1.5750 (Friday’s high) confirms our view that top has been formed at 1.5884 last week and consolidation with downside bias remains for retracement of recent upmove to 1.5701 support, break there would bring deeper correction to 1.5666 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5531-1.5884), however, reckon downside would be limited to previous support at 1.5642 and bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Hold long entered at 99.60

Despite Friday’s rebound to 100.89, lack of follow through buying on break of 100.88 resistance and the subsequent retreat suggest further consolidation would be seen but as long as 99.62 holds, consolidation with upside bias remains for another rebound later. A sustained breach of said resistance at 100.89 would signal the retreat from 102.21 has ended and bring a stronger rebound to 101.40-50

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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