Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Action Insight Daily Report 2-16-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Sentiments Weigh Down by Greece, Moody's, Dollar Firmer

Markets sentiments are weighed down by the delay in Greek bailout approval and moody's warning on downgrade of some global banks. Asian equities are broadly lower following -97 pts fall in DOW. EUR/USD remains soft and is back pressing 1.3 psychological level. Commodity currencies are also generally lower following mild risk aversion. We'd like to point out again that DOW continues to face strong resistance between 12800 and 13000 and is very vulnerable to reversal. And when that happens, most major currencies could weaken sharply against the dollar. The development in the next few days remains critical.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3010; (P) 1.3100 (R1) 1.3157; More...

EUR/USD drops further to as low as 1.3007 so far today as fall from 1.3321 accelerates. The break of 1.3028 support indicates that rebound from 1.2625 has completed at 1.3321 already and the fall from 1.4939 is likely resuming. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.2625 and below. On the upside, above 1.3190 minor resistance will dampen this immediate bearish view and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3321 resistance instead.

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Special Reports

FOMC Minutes Unveiled a Few Members Opted for More Asset Purchases

The FOMC minutes for the January meeting were as dovish as the policy statement suggested. Yet, the change in wordings suggested that there were fewer members demanding further easing. Policymakers noted that “strains in global financial markets continued to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook” and “a few members” observed that elevated unemployment and subdued inflation pressure could “warrant the initiation of additional securities purchases before long”. In December, it’s stated that “a number of members” judged additional purchases are warranted. In our opinion, QE3 remains possible for 2H12 despite recent improvements in economic indicators.

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China Hesitate to Act although It Reiterates to Support Eurozone

As the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone continues to deteriorate, EU financial ministers have been traveling abroad to seek assistance besides pulling funds among member nations. After German Chancellor's visit to Beijing earlier this month, Mr. Herman Van Rompuy, President of the European Council, and Mr. Jose Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission, discuss with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao at a China-EU summit on possible Chinese investment in the EU bailout fund. China's response sounded once positive with Premier Wen stated that it's in China's interest to see the Eurozone "maintain stability and prosperity" and "China is firm in supporting the EU side in dealing with the debt problems. We match our words with actions". His comments were echoed by PBOC's governor Zhou Xiaochuan who stated that "our state leaders promised European leaders that, amid the global financial crisis and the Europe sovereign debt crisis, China will not cut the proportion of euro exposure" and China "has always been confident in the euro and its future". Despite the reiterations, China has so far failed to commit an amount or a time of the investment. What are hindering China's move?

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:30 NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index Jan 50.5 51.9 51.6
0:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation Feb 2.50% 2.80%
0:30 AUD Employment Change Jan 46.3K 10.9K -29.3K -5.6K
0:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Jan 5.10% 5.30% 5.20%
9:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
13:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Dec 7.98B 14.99B
13:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Dec 0.50% 2.00%
13:30 USD PPI M/M Jan 0.30% -0.10%
13:30 USD PPI Y/Y Jan 4.10% 4.80%
13:30 USD PPI Core M/M Jan 0.10% 0.30%
13:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Jan 2.60% 3.00%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 364K 358K
13:30 USD Housing Starts Jan 670K 657K
13:30 USD Building Permits Jan 680K 679K
15:00 USD Philly Fed Survey 8.4 7.3
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -126B -78B
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea update will resume on Tuesday - 21 Feb 2012.

Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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