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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Dollar Back Under Mild Pressure as Markets Stuck in RangeWhile trading activities are relative subdued today so far, dollar is seen softening and is possibly back under some mild pressure. Swiss franc has been quietly firm this week and is leading the rally against dollar. Indeed, EUR/CHF is back pressing 1.205 level for the momentum and seems to be heading back to recent low at 1.2031. Aussie also pared some of this week's losses and is untroubled by the recent political turmoil in the country. Indeed, strength in commodities might help trigger some rebound in Aussie and Kiwi and possibly Loonie too. Without major focus for the day, main attention will turn to German IFO business climate in European session. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9085; (P) 0.9112; (R1) 0.9126; More.... USD/CHF drips further to 0.9072 so far today and further fall is expected to 0.9065 support. As discussed before, break there will affirm the case that rebound from 0.7065 is finished at 0.9594 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. In such case, deeper fall should be seen to 0.8567 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 0.9144 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside. Further break of 0.9300 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rebound instead. |
| Special Reports |
BOE Minutes Unveiled 2 Member Favored More Asset PurchasesThe BOE minutes for the February meeting unveiled that 2 (Adam Posen and David Miles) out of 9 members opted for more expansion in asset purchases than decided. The 2 dissenters to the current monetary policy saw a risk of a prolonged period of depressed demand which would cause inflation to fall materially below target in the medium-term. Also, the expected that further easing would alleviate the risks of increasing unemployment. The news raised speculations that the central may increase the amount of asset buying in May. EU Agrees On Second Greek Bailout Package Worth Of 130B EuroThe latest news is that EU finance ministers have eventually reached an agreement on the second Greek bailout package. The deal requires Greece to bring its debt down to 120.5% of GDP by 2020 from over 164% currently. The agreed reduction was similar to what was requested by the IMF. Moreover, according to Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg, private sector bondholders were expected to incur losses of 53.5% of nominal face value of their Greek bond holdings, up from the previously expected 50.0% nominal write-down. Investors welcomed the news and the euro jumped against the US dollar after the announcement. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchCHF: The greenback has remained under pressure in part due to safe haven demand in Swiss franc, offers are lowered to 0.9115 and more selling interests from various parties are located at 0.9140-50 with stops remain above 0.9150 but fresh offers are expected to emerge around 0.9190-00 with bigger stops building up above 0.9210. On the downside, bids from European and U.S. names are noted at 0.9080 with stops placed below 0.9060-70 and more buying interest from same names are expected at 0.9050 and also from 0.9030 down to 0.9010. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5725Yesterday’s selloff to 1.5648 on dovish BOE vote outcome signals the rebound from 1.5644 has ended at 1.5880 and although cable recovered after holding above said support, upside should be limited to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5732) and bring another decline later. A break of said support at 1.5644 is needed to signal early fall from 1.5929 top has resumed for a stronger retracement of recent upmove to 1.5600-05 Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9015Although intra-day breach of previous support at 0.9083 signals recent decline is still in progress and weakness to 0.9050 would be seen, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9030-35 (50% projection of 0.9300-0.9083 measuring from 0.9145) and bring rebound later. Above the Ichimoku cloud (now at 0.9121-23) would suggest low is possibly formed Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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