Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-29-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Still in Range after ECB LTRO

Euro remains bounded in range after ECB said that another EUR 529.5b will be lent to 800 financial institutions in its second three-year LTRO operation. That's slightly larger than market's expectation of EUR 400b-500b but not far. Also, that compared to December's allotment of EUR 489b to 523 banks. While the total amount was more or less similar to expectation, the number of banks surprised the markets. It's taken as a signal that a lot more smaller financial institutions tapped into the funding and it's possible that more funding could be passed on to the real economy.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9930; (P) 0.9962; (R1) 0.9983; More...

USD/CAD drops sharply to as low as 0.9868 and the break of 0.9891 support indicates resumption of whole decline from 1.0656. Intraday bias is back on the downside and deeper fall should now be seen towards 100% projection of 1.0656 to 0.9891 from 1.0522 at 0.9757. On the upside, above 0.9905 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 1.0049 resistance and bring another fall.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Jan 8.30% 3.40% 2.10% 2.60%
23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Feb 50.5 50.7
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jan P 2.00% 1.50% 3.80%
00:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Feb 28 16.9
00:01 GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Feb -29 -27 -29
00:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Jan 0.30% 0.30% -0.10%
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Jan -1.10% -3.30% -7.30%
08:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Feb -0.12 -0.11 -0.17 -0.15
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Feb 0K -5K -34K -26K
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Feb 6.80% 6.70% 6.70% 6.80%
09:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Jan 59K 54.0K 52.9K 55K
09:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Jan 1.60% -1.40%
09:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Jan -1.80% -2.50%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Jan F -0.80% -0.80% 0.30%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jan F 2.60% 2.70% 2.70%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Jan 1.50% 1.70% 1.60%
13:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q4 S 3.00% 2.80% 2.80%
13:30 USD GDP Price Index Q4 S 0.90% 0.40% 0.40%
14:45 USD Chicago PMI Feb 61.8 60.2
15:00 USD Fed's Bernanke Testifies on Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.6M
19:00 USD Fed's Beige Book

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Although the single currency retreated after testing last Friday's high of 1.3486, bids from Asian CBs emerged at 1.3425-30 and limited euro's downside and more buying interests from same names are tipped at 1.3400 and also 1.3380-85 with stops building up below 1.3380, 1.3360 and 1.3340. On the upside, option defensive offers are still noted at 1.3490-00 with stops placed above option barrier at 1.3500 and also 1.3550 (another barrier and with offers ahead).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5830

Cable’s rally after finding renewed buying interest yesterday at 1.5801 (just above the Ichimoku cloud bottom) confirms recent upmove has resumed and further gain to 1.5965-70 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition would limit upside to psychological resistance at 1.6000 and price should falter well below 1.6050, bring correction later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Exit long entered at 1.0650

Although aussie has maintained a firm undertone after the anticipated rebound from 1.0597, a sustained breach of resistance at 1.0845 is needed to retain bullishness and signal recent rise in wave c has resumed for further gain to 1.0900 but near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.0950-60 and this c leg should falter below previous resistance at 1.1081, bring retreat later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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