Friday, February 17, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-17-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sentiments Firm Greek Optimism, Yen Lower on Shirakawa

Market sentiments are generally firm on optimism that Greek's EUR 130b second bailout would be concluded next Monday. Italian prime ministers Monti's office said in a statement that Monti himself, German Merkel and Greek Papademos shared such optimism. Regarding the role of ECB, markets are speculating that the bank would swap it's Greek bonds for news ones with identical structure and nominal value so that it's won't be forced to take losses in the debt restructuring.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 78.54; (P) 78.75; (R1) 79.14; More...

USD/JPY's rally is still in progress and reaches as high as 79.36 so far in early US session. Intraday bias is still on the upside for 79.52 resistance and then 100% projection of 75.56 to 79.52 from 76.02 at 79.98. On the downside below 78.78 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first before staging another rise.

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Special Reports

FOMC Minutes Unveiled a Few Members Opted for More Asset Purchases

The FOMC minutes for the January meeting were as dovish as the policy statement suggested. Yet, the change in wordings suggested that there were fewer members demanding further easing. Policymakers noted that “strains in global financial markets continued to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook” and “a few members” observed that elevated unemployment and subdued inflation pressure could “warrant the initiation of additional securities purchases before long”. In December, it’s stated that “a number of members” judged additional purchases are warranted. In our opinion, QE3 remains possible for 2H12 despite recent improvements in economic indicators.

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China Hesitate to Act although It Reiterates to Support Eurozone

As the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone continues to deteriorate, EU financial ministers have been traveling abroad to seek assistance besides pulling funds among member nations. After German Chancellor's visit to Beijing earlier this month, Mr. Herman Van Rompuy, President of the European Council, and Mr. Jose Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission, discuss with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao at a China-EU summit on possible Chinese investment in the EU bailout fund. China's response sounded once positive with Premier Wen stated that it's in China's interest to see the Eurozone "maintain stability and prosperity" and "China is firm in supporting the EU side in dealing with the debt problems. We match our words with actions". His comments were echoed by PBOC's governor Zhou Xiaochuan who stated that "our state leaders promised European leaders that, amid the global financial crisis and the Europe sovereign debt crisis, China will not cut the proportion of euro exposure" and China "has always been confident in the euro and its future". Despite the reiterations, China has so far failed to commit an amount or a time of the investment. What are hindering China's move?

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
07:00 EUR German PPI M/M Jan 0.60% 0.20% -0.40%
07:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Jan 3.40% 3.10% 4.00%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Dec 2.0B 2.3B -1.8B -0.90B
09:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Jan 0.90% -0.20% 0.60%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales Y/Y Jan 1.90% 0.00% 1.70% 1.40%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel M/M Jan -0.90% -0.20% 0.60%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel Y/Y Jan 2.00% 0.60% 2.60%
12:00 CAD CPI M/M Jan 0.40% 0.30% -0.60%
12:00 CAD CPI Y/Y Jan 2.50% 2.30% 2.30%
12:00 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Jan 0.20% 0.00% -0.50%
12:00 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Jan 2.10% 1.90% 1.90%
13:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Jan 0.70% 0.60% 0.80%
13:30 USD CPI M/M Jan 0.20% 0.30% 0.00%
13:30 USD CPI Y/Y Jan 2.90% 2.80% 3.00%
13:30 USD CPI Core M/M Jan 0.20% 0.20% 0.10%
13:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Jan 2.10% 2.20% 2.20%
15:00 USD Leading Indicators Jan 0.50% 0.40%
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea update will resume on Tuesday - 21 Feb 2012.

Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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