Monday, February 27, 2012

Action Insight Daily Report 2-28-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Euro Stays in Range after S&P Downgrade Greece to Selective Default

Euro's profit-taking retreat yesterday was rather brief. EUR/USD continues to stay firmly above 1.34 level so far today. Despite the new bailout fund, Greece's outlook has not turned any better. S&P's downgraded the country's credit rating to 'selective default', following Fitch Rating's downgrade to C and Moody's warning of a reduction to the lowest rating. Yet, European officials continued to defend Greek by said that the cut has 'no impact in the Greek banking sector as its liquidity effect has been address by the Bank of Greece and consequently by the EFSF'.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2380; (P) 1.2499; (R1) 1.2571; More.

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral for the moment. Below 1.2411 will minor support will suggest that recovery from 1.2132 is finished and should flip bias back to the downside for retesting this support. Break will confirm resumption of recent fall and should target 1.2 psychological level next. On the upside, above 1.2617 will extend the rebound towards 38.2% retracement of 1.3808 to 1.2132 at 1.2772 . Nonetheless, such rebound is still viewed as a correction and hence, we'd expect upside to be limited below 1.2927 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption eventually.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
EUR German CPI M/M Feb P 0.50% -0.40%
EUR German CPI Y/Y Feb P 2.10% 2.10%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Jan 1.90% -0.10% 2.50%
7:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Jan 0.92
7:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Sentiment Mar 6 5.9
10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Feb F -20.2 -20.2
10:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Feb 94 93.4
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Feb -7 -7.2
10:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Feb -0.6 -0.6
11:00 GBP CBI Reported Sales Feb -12 -22
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Jan -1.00% 3.00%
13:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Jan 0.00% 2.10%
14:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Dec -3.60% -3.70%
15:00 USD Consumer Confidence Feb 63 61.1

Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

JPY: Dollar slipped to as low as 80.01 this morning and indicated bids from Japanese investors limited downside and lifted the pair in Tokyo, however, offers from exporters are still noted at 80.65-70 and further out at 81.00-10 with some stops placed above 81.25 but more sizeable sell orders are expected from 81.50 up to 81.70 with more stops placed above 81.80. On the downside, stops are building up below 79.95 and 79.80 but fresh demand should emerge down to 79.50 with bigger stops seen at 79.30.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5775

Although cable has rebounded after yesterday’s fall to 1.5810, above 1.5875 is needed to signal the pullback from 1.5904 has ended and bring another rise to this level, otherwise, further consolidation would take place, below said support at 1.5810 would bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.5776-84 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5648 and current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom), however, previous resistance at 1.5756 should hold, bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3350

Although euro has rebounded after yesterday’s retreat to 1.3366 and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen, above 1.3465 is needed to signal the retreat from 1.3486 has ended and bring resumption of upmove, otherwise, further consolidation would be seen and another corrective fall cannot be ruled out but 1.3342-43 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3198-1.3486 and previous resistance) should limit downside, bring another rise.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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