Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-4-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Firm as Risk Aversion Dominates after Poor Spanish Bond Sales

Risk aversion continues to dominate markets in early US session. Poor Spanish bond auctions sent European equities lower while US stocks opened sharply lower, with DOW down over -100 pts following yesterday's post FOMC minutes selloff. US data released today saw ADP employment rose 209k in March while ISM non-manufacturing index dropped to 56. Both were solid even though unspectacular but provided little inspiration to markets. Dollar strength would likely remain the main theme today.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3174; (P) 1.3271 (R1) 1.3328; More.....

EUR/USD drops further to as low as 1.3107 so far in early US session and intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.3003 support. Break there will resume the whole decline from 1.3486 and should target 100% projection of 1.3486 to 1.3003 from 1.3385 at 1.2902 next. More importantly, this will revive the case that whole rebound from 1.2625 is finished at 1.3486 and the larger decline from 1.4939 is still in progress. On the upside, break of 1.3385 though, will bring retest of 1.3486 instead.

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Special Reports

RBA Stands Aside For Fourth Month

The RBA, as expected, left the cash rate unchanged at 4.25% in April. Although macroeconomic data during the intermeeting period came in weaker than expected, policymakers believed it is prudent to take more time gauging forthcoming data for assessing the growth outlook. The central bank cited improvement in financial market sentiment, robust household spending would continue to support expansion. Policymakers acknowledged that the world economy will grow at a below-trend pace this year, given a number of countries in Europe expected to suffer from economic contraction and China’s growth has been moderating. Yet, there’s no indication of 'a deep downturn' so far.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Mar 1.50% 1.50% 1.20%
01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Feb -0.48B 1.12B -0.67B -0.97B
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Mar F 49.2 48.7 48.7
08:30 GBP PMI Services Mar 55.3 53.4 53.8
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Feb -0.10% -0.20% 0.30% 1.10%
10:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Feb 0.30% 1.40% -2.70%
11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Mar 209K 205K 216K
12:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite Mar 56 56.6 57.3
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.1M 7.1M

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to head south after yesterday's selloff and bids and stops at 1.3170-80 were cleared, mixture of bids and stops at 1.3100-05 is now in focus, however, fresh demand from Asian sovereign names should emerge further out at 1.3040-50 and further out at 1.3000-10. On the upside, offers from various parties are tipped at 1.3170-80 and 1.3200-10 with more selling interest remains at 1.3240-50, stops are building up above 1.3255 and 1.3280.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5935

Yesterday’s sharp fall signals top has been formed at 1.6063 earlier this week and bearishness is seen for further weakness to previous support at 1.5842, however, break there is needed to retain bearishness and bring a stronger retracement of recent entire rise from 1.5603 but near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.5807 support.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell again at 109.70

As the single currency has fallen again after yesterday’s recovery to 109.82, adding credence to our view that rebound from 108.49 has ended and test of said support is seen, break there would extend the fall from 111.43 top has resumed for retracement of recent upmove to 108.00 and then 107.85 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 105.64-111.43)

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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