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| Action Insight | Candlesticks Trades | Markets Summary | Action Bias | Top Movers | Daily Technicals |
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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: EUR/USD Pressing 1.3 as Spain Weighs, Yen Broadly HigherEuro weakens broadly as the week starts and is back pressing 1.3 level against dollar as being weighed down by worry on Spain. As Spanish 10 year yield is climbing back towards the unsustainable level which eventually led to bailout of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, Spanish officials called for more bond purchases by ECB. Nonetheless, recent comments from ECB officials revealed split stance on the issue among policy makers. Markets are also getting a bit more nervous on the issue as Spain will face more tests will the auction of 12-month and 18-month bills tomorrow and, more importantly, auction of 2014 and 2022 bonds on Thursday. All eyes will be on whether Spanish 10 year yield will move away from 6% level this week, and on which direction. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 105.29; (P) 106.19; (R1) 106.67; More EUR/JPY drops to as low as 104.77 so far today as fall from 111.43 resumed. The strong break of 105.64 support now indicates that whole rebound from 97.03 is already finished at 111.43, ahead of 111.57 resistance. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 97.03 to 111.43 at 102.53 next. Break will target 97.03 low. On the upside, break of 107.09 resistance is needed to indicates short term bottoming. Otherwise, we'll now stay bearish even in case of recovery. |
| Special Reports |
The Possibility of Fed's QE3Speeches from Fed officials have been directing market expectations of QE3. The FOMC minutes for the March meeting indicated that policymakers saw less urgency to implement QE3 due to improvement in the economic backdrop. Yet, the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech regarding stimulus and the job market, and Vice Chairman Janet Yellen's comment that 'a highly accommodative policy stance to be appropriate' have once again sparked speculations on QE3. The current developments suggest that further QE is still likely, but only after completion of Operation Twist and upon rapid deterioration of economic growth. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency tumbled last Friday in part due to the release of weaker-than-expected China’s Q1 GDP data and stops below 1.3090 and 1.3050 were triggered and bids at 1.3030 were also filled, mixture of bids and stops at 1.3000-10 (related to 1.3000 barrier) is now in focus, more stops are placed below 1.2970 and 1.2950. On the upside, offers are reported at 1.3050-60 and also at 1.3090-00 with some stops building up above 1.3100 and also above 1.3150. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3080Friday’s selloff together with the breach of support at 1.3033 (last week’s low) signals recent decline has resumed and further weakness to 1.2970-75 would be seen, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.2940-50 and risk from there is seen for a rebound later this week. Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5900Friday’s selloff has kept cable under pressure, adding credence to our view that the rebound from recent low of 1.5805 has ended at 1.5985 last week and bearishness is seen for a retest of this support, break there would signal recent decline from 1.6063 top has resumed and extend further weakness to previous support at 1.5770 which is likely to hold on first testing. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights
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