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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Mid-Day Report: Dollar Soft after Job Data, Euro Shrugged off Weak Italian AuctionEuro is mildly firmer in range against dollar in yen despite relatively weak Italian bond auction. On the other hand, dollar is also slightly softer in early US session on weak job data. Initial jobless claims rose another 13k in the weekended April 7 to 380k, the highest level since end of January. Other data from US saw PPI moderated sharply to 2.8% yoy in March but core PPI dropped less than expected to 2.9% yoy. Trade deficit in US came in narrower than expected at -$46b. Canada trade surplus was much small than expected at CAD 0.29b and posted some pressured on CAD. US trade deficit came in wider than expected at GBP -8.8b in February. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 80.57; (P) 80.85; (R1) 81.12; More... Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment with focus on 80.58 support. As long as this support level holds, we'd still favor the case for rise from 76.02 to extend. Above 81.86 minor resistance will indicate that pullback from 84.17 is finished and will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 84.17. However, decisive break of 80.58 will extend the fall to 61.8% retracement of 76.02 to 84.17 at 79.13. Also, such deeper than expected decline would raise the odds that whole rebound from 75.56 is finished and would turn focus to 79.52 resistance turned support for confirmation. |
| Special Report |
China Watch: Confidence In Chinese Growth ReturnsMarket sentiment over China's economy has turned more optimistic since the beginning of April, after the encouraging report on March manufacturing PMI. Higher-than-expected inflation and improvement in bank lending have provided more evidence of a return of growth strength. Concerning the macroeconomic policy, the PBOC indicated a mild change in the monetary statement after the monetary policy meeting held on March 31. Yet, while the government policies would be less tight, there's no signal of a very accommodative stance in coming months. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: Despite intra-day bounce to 81.13 (same level as yesterday), the greenback has retreated in New York morning after running into offers there (for protection of stops above 81.20), more selling interests from exporters are reported at 81.50 and also at 81.85-90 with more stops placed above 82.00. On the downside, option defensive bids are still noted at 80.50-60 with stops placed below barrier at 80.50, however, fresh bids from Japanese investors are lined up at 80.20-30 and also above next barrier at 80.00. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3085Yesterday’s breach of previous resistance at 1.3145 suggests the rebound form 1.3033 (last week’s low) is still in progress and would bring a retracement of recent decline to 1.3200-05 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3368-1.3033), however, reckon 1.3240 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would limit upside and bring another decline later. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Turn long at 1.0310As the greenback has recovered after marginal fall to 80.57 yesterday, suggesting consolidation would be seen and retracement to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 81.24) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 81.87 (previous resistance), bring another decline later but near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 80.20-30 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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