Thursday, April 26, 2012

Action Insight Daily Report 4-26-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Fed and RBNZ on Hold, Dollar Soft on Risk Sentiments

Market sentiments are generally lifted by Fed's pledge to maintain rates low till late 2014 and positive earnings from US companies. So far, around 75% of the 200 companies in S&P 500 index that has reported results beat expectations. Nasdaq had the biggest rise this year yesterday on Apple overnight while DOW rose nearly 90 pts. Positive sentiments carried on to Asian session today even though buying in risks faded somewhat. Dollar remains generally soft, in particular against Canadian dollar, which took our recent range yesterday. Meanwhile, Sterling surprisingly survived yesterday's poor GDP data and break key near term resistance of 1.6165 against greenback. We'd possibly see more downside in dollar today.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3180; (P) 1.3208 (R1) 1.3244; More.....

The recovery from 1.2994 is still in progress as EUR/USD edges higher to 1.3237 so far today. Intraday bias remains mildly on the upside for 1.3385 resistance. But again, note that breakout from 1.2994/3385 zone is needed to confirm the near term outlook. Otherwise, we'd possibly see more choppy sideway range trading ahead. Break of 1.3384 will indicate that consolidation from 1.3486 has completed and rebound from 1.2625 is resuming. On the downside, below 1.3104 will turn bias to the downside for 1.2994. Break will revive the case that rebound from 1.2625 is finished and would possibly resume the larger decline from 1.4939.

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Special Reports

FOMC And RBNZ Meeting Review

As expected, the Fed maintained the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and did not add further monetary easing measures. While the post-meeting statement contained only modest changes from the previous ones, the latest economic projections sent a confusing outlook. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated that the central bank has 'prepared to do more as needed to make sure that this recovery continues and that inflation stays close to target'. The language to leave interest rates at exceptionally low level at least until mid-2014 remained unchanged.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
0:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Feb 0.00% 1.10%
4:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Feb -0.10% -0.20% -1.00%
8:30 GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals Mar 34.3K 33.1K
9:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr F -19.8 -19.8
9:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Apr 94.2 94.4
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Apr -7 -7.2
9:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Apr -0.5 -0.3
10:00 GBP CBI Reported Sales Apr -4 0
12:00 EUR German CPI M/M Apr P 0.10% 0.30%
12:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Apr P 2.00% 2.10%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 375K 386K
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Mar 1.30% -0.50%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 46B 25B

Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: Despite dropping quite sharply to 1.6082 yesterday on soft UK GDP data, decent demand from Asian CBs put a floor for cable there and lifted sterling again for rest of the day, offers at 1.6170 and stops above 1.6180 were cleared and mixture of offers and stops at 1.6200 is now in focus, more sell orders from model funds are reported at 1.6230 and 1.6250-60. On the downside, bids from Asian names remain at 1.6155-60 and also at 1.6120-25 with stops building up below 1.6070-80 and further out at 1.6050.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 0.9100

Failure to extend overnight rebound and as the greenback has fallen again after meeting renewed selling interests at the Ichimoku cloud bottom, suggesting caution on our long position entered at 0.9100 and 0.9070 needs to hold to retain bullishness for another rebound, above 0.9122 (yesterday’s high) would bring test of resistance at 0.9141, then 0.9172

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold short entered at 81.50

Despite overnight brief rise to 81.71, as dollar has retreated after faltering below resistance at 81.78, retaining our bearishness for another test of 80.86, break there would signal top is formed and bring further fall to 80.50, however, as broad outlook is consolidative, reckon support at 80.29 should remain intact and bring another rebound later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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