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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Mid-Day Report: Sterling Tumbled as UK Back in Recession, Poor US Durable Goods Ignored as Focus Turns to FOMCSterling dipped sharply after disappointing UK GDP data which showed -0.2% qoq contraction in Q1. Together with -0.3% qoq contraction in Q4, UK has now formally entered into a technical recession. That's psychologically much worse than expectation of a 0.1% qoq rise. On year-over-year basis, GDP was unchanged versus expectation of 0.3% rise. Also, today's data marked that the first double-dip recessions in UK since 1970s. Nonetheless, Osborne pledged that he won't ditch his austerity plan as he said that "the one thing that would make the situation even worse would be to abandon our credible plan and deliberately add more borrowing and even more debt". In spite of today's figure, it's still believed that BoE will pause the GBP 325b asset purchase program when they meet next month. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.6113; (P) 1.6138; (R1) 1.6167; More... Despite a brief breach of 1.6165, GBP/USD faced strong resistance from this cluster level and retreated sharply. Nonetheless, with 1.6076 minor support intact, intraday bias is still neutral. As noted before, sustained break of 1.6165 will confirm completion of decline from 1.6764 and bring further rally to 100% projection of 1.5234 to 1.5991 from 1.5602 at 1.6359 next. On the downside, however, below 1.6067 will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and will turn bias back to the downside for 1.5818 support and possibly below. |
| Special Reports |
Fed And RBNZ To Keep Rates On HoldInvestors would probably see confusing messages at the FOMC meeting in April though the policy decisions would have no change from the previous meeting. While Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the post-meeting statement would focus on the moderated macroeconomic data since the March meeting, the staff projections would likely show more hawkishness. On the bottomline, the Fed would retain the reference that the Fed funds rate would stay at exceptionally low level at least until mid-2014. At the press conference, the Chairman would possibly not hint the direction of the monetary policy. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchGBP: The British pound dropped shortly after the release of lower-than-expected UK GDP data, cable quickly slipped to as low as 1.6085 in London before recovering, bids from Asian CBs were spotted and although some stops are placed below 1.6070, more buying interests from them are tipped at 1.6050 and further out at 1.6010 with stops building up below 1.6000. On the upside, offers from short-term specs are reported at 1.6140-50 and also at 1.6170 with stops placed above 1.6175-80 but fresh selling interests should emerge further out at 1.6220-25 and 1.6250-60. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6140Despite intra-day brief rise to 1.6172, lack of follow through buying and the subsequent sharp retreat after the release of weaker-than-expected UK GDP data suggest a top has been formed there and consolidation with downside bias is seen, break of previous support at 1.6076 would add credence to this view and bring retracement to 1.6030-35 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5895-1.6172) and possibly towards previous support at 1.6009 Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Hold long entered at 1.0255Despite yesterday’s fall to 1.0247, as aussie has rebounded from there, retaining our view that a temporary low has been formed at 1.0226 earlier and consolidation with upside bias remains for test of 1.0391, break there would suggest retreat has ended and bring another rise to previous resistance at 1.0453 but break there is needed to signal the rebound from 1.0226 is still in progress Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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