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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Sentiments Stabilized on ECB SMP Hope, Aussie Rebounded on Job DataSentiments stabilized somewhat on talk of resumption of ECB's SMP. Asian equities are broadly higher, recovering some of this week's lost ground, following the 90 pts recovery in DOW. Dollar and yen are soft against most major currencies but most pairs are kept largely in range. Except that, notable strength is seen in Australia dollar after solid job market report. Australian economy added 44k jobs in March, mush between then market expectation of 6.5k while unemployment rate was unexpectedly unchanged at 5.2%. Speculation for another rate cut from RBA on May 1 cooled, nonetheless still stands at around 80%. Traders are treating the recovery in AUD/USD cautiously as a more important piece of data to watch is the quarterly CPI reading to be released later this month. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0238; (P) 1.0285; (R1) 1.0345; More AUD/USD's strong rebound and break of 1.0356 minor resistance indicates that a short term bottom is in place at 1.0225 and intraday bias is flipped back to the upside. Further rally could be seen back towards 61.8% retracement of 1.0852 to 1.0225 at 1.0612. Break of 1.0636 will indicate that choppy rebound from 0.9387 is still in progress for another high above 1.0852 before completion. Meanwhile, failure below 1.0636 should extend the decline from 1.0852 towards 0.9663 support. After all, consolidation pattern from 1.1079 is still in progress and another fall is anticipated to below parity as the consolidation extends. |
| Special Report |
China Watch: Confidence In Chinese Growth ReturnsMarket sentiment over China's economy has turned more optimistic since the beginning of April, after the encouraging report on March manufacturing PMI. Higher-than-expected inflation and improvement in bank lending have provided more evidence of a return of growth strength. Concerning the macroeconomic policy, the PBOC indicated a mild change in the monetary statement after the monetary policy meeting held on March 31. Yet, while the government policies would be less tight, there's no signal of a very accommodative stance in coming months. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchGBP: The British pound edged higher since New York session on cross-buying in sterling due to risk appetite, however, offers from funds and UK clearer are still noted at 1.5950-60 with stops building up above 1.5970, followed by mixture of offers and stops at 1.5990-00. On the downside, bids from Asian, Middle East and Eastern European names remain at 1.5910-20 and also at 1.5875-85 with stops building up below 1.5870 and 1.5845-50, combination of bids and stops in good size remains at 1.5800-10. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Hold short entered at 1.5915As the British pound has risen again after overnight retreat to 1.5886 (just held above the Kijun-Sen), suggesting caution on our short position entered at 1.5915 and 1.5950 needs to hold to retain bearishness for another retreat, below said support would suggest the rebound from 1.5808 has possibly ended and bring test of the Ichimoku cloud (now at 1.5870). Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 81.80As the greenback has recovered after marginal fall to 80.57 yesterday, suggesting consolidation would be seen and retracement to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 81.24) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 81.87 (previous resistance), bring another decline later but near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 80.20-30 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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