Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-24-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Lifted by Debt Auctions in Holland, Spain and Italy, Bounded in Range

While markets are generally staying in range, Euro is lifted mildly today against dollar as yen. Relatively successful debt auctions in the Netherlands, Spain and Italy somewhat offset the negative sentiments from political uncertainties in the Netherlands and France. Price actions remain indecisive though, except with clear weakness in Aussie. Data from US saw consumer confidence dropped slightly to 69.2 in April, new home sales rose slightly to 328k in March, S&P house price index dropped -3.5% yoy in February. Canada retail sales was weak and dropped -0.2% mom in February with ex-auto sales up 0.5%. But the data provides little inspiration to the markets.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6093; (P) 1.6114; (R1) 1.6151; More...

GBP/USD edges higher to 1.6163 today and is pressing 1.6165 cluster resistance. Upside momentum is not too convincing yet with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line. Bias remains neutral first with focus on 1.6165. Sustained break there will confirm completion of decline from 1.6764 and bring further rally to 100% projection of 1.5234 to 1.5991 from 1.5602 at 1.6359 next. on the downside, however, below 1.6067 will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and will turn bias back to the downside for 1.5818 support and possibly below.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Mar -0.30% -0.60% -0.60%
01:30 AUD CPI Q/Q Q1 0.10% 0.70% 0.00%
01:30 AUD CPI Y/Y Q1 1.60% 2.20% 3.10%
01:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q1 0.30% 0.60% 0.60%
01:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q1 2.20% 2.40% 2.60%
01:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q1 0.40% 0.60% 0.50%
01:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q1 2.10% 2.30% 2.60%
02:00 CNY Conference Board Leading Index 0.80% 0.80% 1.00%
06:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Mar 1.69B 3.00B 2.68B 2.61B
06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Mar 1.22 0.87
08:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Mar 15.9B 14.2B 12.9B 9.9B
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Feb -0.20% 0.20% 0.50%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Feb 0.50% 0.80% -0.50%
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Feb -3.50% -3.50% -3.80%
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence Apr 69.2 69.5 70.2
14:00 USD House Price Index M/M Feb 0.30% 0.20% 0.00%
14:00 USD New Home Sales Mar 328K 320K 313K

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound has continued to move higher and a fresh 7-month high was formed at 1.6164, however, offers (for profit-taking purposes) are still noted at 1.6165-70 and further out at 1.6195-00 as well as 1.6220-30. On the downside, nearest bids are tipped at 1.6110-20 and more buying interests from Middle East and Eastern European names are expected at 1.6075-80 and further out at 1.6050 with mixture of bids and stops likely to emerge around 1.6000-10.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6010 or sell at 1.6220

As the British pound has resumed recent upmove after yesterday’s retreat from 1.6155 to 1.6076, bullishness remains for recent upmove to extend to 1.6200, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.6215-20 (50% projection of 1.5862-1.6155 measuring from 1.6076) and bring retreat later, below said support at 1.6076 would bring retracement to 1.6040-50

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Hold long entered at 106.65

As support at 106.32 (yesterday’s low) has continued to hold and euro has rebounded today, retaining our bullishness and as long as this level holds, mild upside bias remains for another rebound, above 107.50 would bring test of yesterday’s high at 107.80 but break of Friday’s high of 108.00 is needed to signal the rise from 104.63 has resumed for a stronger retracement of recent decline to 108.50

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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