Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Action Insight Daily Report 4-11-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Risk Aversion Dominates but Currency Markets Steady

Risk aversion continues to dominate markets on Spain's situation even though that's not being reflected in the currency markets. Spain's 10 year benchmark yield is pressing 6% and would like continue to rise today. Prime minister Rajoy said that there a "a good part of Spain' future is at stake" and "the problem is that the markets can lend or decide not to lend". Economic minister Luis de Guindos noted that recession could be deeper than expected and Spain's central bank chief warned that banks may need additional capital if the recession deepens. While it's being ruled out by Spanish officials, markets are worrying that Spain will eventually need to follow Greece, Ireland and Portugal to seek a bailout.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9149; (P) 0.9180; (R1) 0.9214; More.....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 0.9222 temporary top continues. Another rise remains mildly in favor with 0.9143 minor support holds and above 0.9222 will target a test on 0.9333 first. Break will confirm resumption of rebound from 0.8930 and should target 0.9594 and above. Though, below 0.9143 will flip bias back to the downside and break of 0.9001 will target 0.8930 support.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:00 NZD NZIER Business Opinion Survey Q1 13 0
23:01 GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y Mar 1.30% 0.00% -0.30%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Feb 4.80% -0.80% 3.40%
0:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Apr -1.60% -5.00%
5:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Report
12:15 CAD Housing Starts Mar 202.0K 201.1K
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Mar 0.90% 0.40%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.1M 9.0M
18:00 USD Fed Beige Book
18:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement Mar -$203.0B

Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound has rebounded as well in London morning in part due to early release of UK sales data, offers at 1.5885-90 from UK clearer were filled but sell orders from same parties are still noted at 1.5920-30 with stops placed above 1.5935-40 but fresh selling interests should emerge around 1.5970-80 and 1.6000. On the downside, bids from Asian names and short-term specs are tipped at 1.5850-60 and also in good size from Middle East names at 1.5800-10 with stops building up below 1.5800.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Hold short entered at 1.5915

Despite yesterday’s fall to 1.5808, as cable has staged a strong rebound after holding above previous support at 1.5805, suggesting further consolidation would be seen, however, as long as resistance at 1.5931 holds, bearishness remains for another decline, below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5869 would suggest the rebound from 1.5808 has ended and bring another test of 1.5805-08 support.

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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 0.9175

Despite yesterday’s rebound to 0.9211, as the greenback has retreated again after faltering below last week’s high of 0.9222, suggesting further consolidation would be seen and indicated support at 0.9145-47 needs to hold to retain prospect of another rise later and a break of said resistance at 0.9222 would signal the upmove from 0.9002 low has resumed and extend further gain towards previous resistance at 0.9254

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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