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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Mid-Day Report: CAD Jumps as BoC Turned Hawkish, IMF Raised Growth Forecast, Spain Auction PassedCanadian dollar jumps in early US session after BoC left rates unchanged and issued an upbeat statement with tightening bias. The bank noted that economic momentum in Canada is "slightly firmer" than expected back in January, with external headwinds bated and more resilient recovery in US. GDP is projected to grow 2.4% in 2012 and 2013 before dipping back to 2.2% in 2014. The bank also expect economy to return to full capacity in first half of 2013. Inflation profile is also expected to be firmer. Headline CPI is expected to be around 2% over the balance of projection horizon. Most importantly, the bank said that "some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate" and the timing will be "weighed carefully against domestic and global economic developments". |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9967; (P) 0.9999; (R1) 1.0026; More. USD/CAD drops sharply in early US session and is pressing 0.9888 support. Break there will suggest that recent consolidation pattern from 0.9841 is finished at 1.0053 already and the larger decline from 1.0552 is resuming. In that case, USD/CAD should drop through 0.9841 support to 0.9725 support next. On the upside, though, above 0.9926 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and bring more choppy sideway trading first. |
| Special Reports |
RBA's May Decision Depends on CPI DataThe April RBA minutes signaled that policymakers did not consider cutting interest rates appropriate at the meeting, despite softer employment market and downward revision in economic assessments. The possibility of a rate cut appears lower than what is priced in the market. Yet, the CPI print for 1Q12 would be a key determining factor for the monetary decision. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency jumped again in European morning in part due to the release of better-than-expected German ZEW data and stops at 1.3150 were triggered, however, offers at 1.3170-80 capped euro's upside so far and more selling interests are tipped at 1.3200-10 with sizeable stops placed above 1.3180 and 1.3215-20. On the downside, mixtures of bids (from U.S. big names) and stops are located at 1.3090-00 and further out at 1.3050 but decent demand remain at 1.3000-10. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9100Although the greenback has rebounded after yesterday’s selloff to 0.9139, reckon the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.9200 would limit upside and near term downside risk remains for marginal weakness below said support, however, still reckon last week’s low at 0.9092 would limit downside and bring another rebound later. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0280Aussie’s retreat after rebounding to 1.0453 last Friday suggests consolidation would be seen, however, if our view a temporary low formed at 1.0226 last week is correct, downside should be limited to 1.0280 and bring another rebound to said resistance. A break there would add credence to this view and bring retracement of recent decline to previous resistance at 1.0470 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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