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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Mid-Day Report: Euro Soft on Spain Budget Concerns, Dollar Awaits FOMC MinutesEuro dips mildly today together with European equities but loss is so far limited. Spanish government presented a more detailed 2012 budget to parliament today which showed debt-to-GDP ratio will jump to 79.8% this year, up from 68.5% last year. That would be the highest level since at least 1990. That's already much higher then EU's recommended 60% ceiling and markets worry that the situation will worsen as slowdown worsens. The budget also include EUR 27b of take hikes and spending cuts to lower the deficit to 5.2% of GDP, down from last year's 8.5%. Also released from Spain, unemployment jumped 0.82% to reach 4.75m mark, highest since 1996. Meanwhile, Eurozone PPI rose slightly more than expected by 0.6% mom, 3.8% yoy in February. Focus will turn to FOMC minutes later in US session and dollar could be given further boost should the minutes show lower chance of QE3 from Fed ahead. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3271; (P) 1.3325 (R1) 1.3373; More..... Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment as sideway trading from 1.3385 continues. Nonetheless, near term outlook remains unchanged. With 1.3191 minor support intact, rebound from 1.3003 is still in favor to continue. Above 1.3385 will target 1.3486 resistance first. Break will confirm resumption of whole rebound from 1.2625 and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4246 to 1.2625 at 1.3627 next. On the downside, below 1.3191 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn focus back to 1.3003 support. |
| Special Reports |
RBA Stands Aside For Fourth MonthThe RBA, as expected, left the cash rate unchanged at 4.25% in April. Although macroeconomic data during the intermeeting period came in weaker than expected, policymakers believed it is prudent to take more time gauging forthcoming data for assessing the growth outlook. The central bank cited improvement in financial market sentiment, robust household spending would continue to support expansion. Policymakers acknowledged that the world economy will grow at a below-trend pace this year, given a number of countries in Europe expected to suffer from economic contraction and China’s growth has been moderating. Yet, there’s no indication of 'a deep downturn' so far. EU Ministers Beefs Up Firewall, Next Focus On IMFEU finance ministers announced to boost the firewall after the Eurogroup meeting in Copenhagen last Friday. The ESM is now expected to work in parallel with the EFSF. While the headlines said that the rescue fund is now increased to 800B euro, 300B euro of which has already been allocated for bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The expansion this time is rather modest, the least among the options anticipated by the market. It remained a concern whether other IMF members (non-EU members) would be willing to inject further liquidity to help the region in its sovereign crisis. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency jumped briefly to 1.3368 in European session, euro ran into heavy offers from Asian name again and has retreated quite sharply from there. however, buying interests from Middle East names are still seen at 1.3300 and also at 1.3275-80, followed by mixture of bids and stops at 1.3240-50. On the upside, offers from same parties remain at 1.3380-90 (for protection of 1.3400 option barrier) with stops seen at 1.3410 but fresh offers are expected to emerge around 1.3440-50. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9110Failure to extend yesterday’s rebound and the subsequent retreat suggest further consolidation would be seen and as price has rebounded after holding above yesterday’s low at 0.9002, prospect of another rebound to 0.9071 cannot be ruled out but price should falter below resistance at 0.9136 and bring another decline. A break of psychological support at 0.9000 is needed to extend recent fall from 0.9335 to 0.8980 Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Target met and sell again at 110.80The single currency met renewed selling interest at 111.13 and tumbled in line with our expectations, indicated target at 108.80 was met this morning as price dropped to as low as 108.70 before recovering (our short position entered at 110.80 met target at 108.80 with 200 points profit) this morning. Having said that, as price has rebounded from 108.70, suggesting further consolidation within 108.49-111.43 range would be seen Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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