Thursday, April 19, 2012

Action Insight Daily Report 4-19-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Euro in Range ahead of Spain Auction

Euro remains in range as markets are cautiously awaiting an important bond auction from Spain today. Tuesday's bill auction was a success with strong demand and yield dropped back below 6% after that. But investors see today's auction as a real test of market confidence. Spain targets to sell up to EUR 2.5b of 2014 and 2022 bonds today. Yields are expected to rise and the focus is indeed on the demand. Anything below the relatively small target of EUR 2.5b would be seen as a big disappointment and could trigger sharp selloff in Spanish bonds and Euro.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5929; (P) 1.5985; (R1) 1.6077; More...

GBP/USD rises further to as high as 1.6070 so far today and the break of 1.6060 resistance confirms resumption of rally from 1.6502 and that from 1.5234. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise should be seen towards 1.6165 key cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.6746 to 1.5234) next. On the downside, below 1.6013 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.5818 support is needed to signal near term reversal, or, outlook will stay cautiously bullish.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD CPI Q/Q Q1 0.50% 0.60% -0.30%
22:45 NZD CPI Y/Y Q1 1.60% 1.60% 1.80%
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Mar -0.62T -0.43T -0.31T -0.32T
1:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Q1 -1 1
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 366K 380K
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr A -19 -19.1
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Apr 12 12.5
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Mar 4.61M 4.59M
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Mar 0.20% 0.70%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 10B 8B

Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound maintained a firm undertone after yesterday's rally on BOE hawkish minutes and stops above 1.6000 barrier were tripped, however, offers from short-term specs are still noted at 1.6050-60 with bigger stops placed above recent high of 1.6063 but fresh sell orders are likely to emerge around 1.6090-00. On the downside, bids from various parties (including Middle East names) are lined at 1.5970-80 with some stops placed below 1.5950 but fresh demand should appear around 1.5920-30 as well as 1.5900 with bigger stops planted below 1.5890.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5985

As the British pound has risen again after intra-day brief pullback and current breach of previous resistance at 1.6063 signals recent upmove has resumed and further gain to 1.6095-00 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition would prevent sharp move beyond 1.6125-30 and reckon 1.6150 would hold from here, bring retreat later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3040

Although the single currency rebounded after falling to 1.3058 yesterday, break of 1.3173 is needed to signal another leg of rise from 1.2995 temporary low is formed and bring further gain to last week’s high of 1.3213, otherwise, further consolidation would be seen and another retreat to 1.3058 cannot be ruled out but renewed buying interests should emerge around 1.3030-35 and ring another rise.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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