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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Dollar Maintains Post FOMC Minutes Gains; ECB, Spain Auctions and Services Data WatchedFOMC minutes released overnight dented hope for QE3 and turned markets into risk averse mode. Asian equities were broadly lower today even though DOW pared some losses to close just -65 pts down. Gold reacted strongly and is now struggling below 1650 level and it just had an attempt on 1700 level last week. Dollar index extends rally on risk aversion and is firm above 79.50 level so far. Further volatility is anticipated today as we'll have services PMI from Eurozone, UK and US, ADP employment data as well as ECB rate decision. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0267; (P) 1.0365; (R1) 1.0428; More AUD/USD drops to as low as 1.0262 so far today and the break of 1.0304 confirmed resumption of fall from 1.0852. Intraday bias is back on the downside and AUD/USD should head towards 61.8% retracement of 0.9663 to 1.0852 at 1.0117 next. Also, note that fall from 1.0852 is viewed as another falling leg inside the consolidation pattern from 1.1079 has started at 1.0852 and should target 0.9663 support and below. On the upside, break of 1.0462 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will stay bearish even in case of recovery. |
| Special Reports |
ECB to Gauge Impacts of Second 3-Year LTROThe April ECB meeting will see no change in monetary policy. The sovereign debt in the Eurozone appeared to have stabilized in recent weeks after approval of the second bailout fund to the Greece and finalization of the PSI scheme. Yet, the problems are far from being resolved. Therefore, the ECB would continue to watch the situation closely. The 3-year LTRO failed to boost bank lending as much as anticipated by the ECB. While we believe no additional measures to be announced at the April meeting, the easing bias remained. Indeed, the President Draghi has recently defended ECB operations which resulted in "improvements in the overall outlook". RBA Stands Aside For Fourth MonthThe RBA, as expected, left the cash rate unchanged at 4.25% in April. Although macroeconomic data during the intermeeting period came in weaker than expected, policymakers believed it is prudent to take more time gauging forthcoming data for assessing the growth outlook. The central bank cited improvement in financial market sentiment, robust household spending would continue to support expansion. Policymakers acknowledged that the world economy will grow at a below-trend pace this year, given a number of countries in Europe expected to suffer from economic contraction and China’s growth has been moderating. Yet, there’s no indication of 'a deep downturn' so far. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency jumped briefly to 1.3368 in European session, euro ran into heavy offers from Asian name again and has retreated quite sharply from there. however, buying interests from Middle East names are still seen at 1.3300 and also at 1.3275-80, followed by mixture of bids and stops at 1.3240-50. On the upside, offers from same parties remain at 1.3380-90 (for protection of 1.3400 option barrier) with stops seen at 1.3410 but fresh offers are expected to emerge around 1.3440-50. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5980Yesterday’s sharp fall signals top has been formed at 1.6063 earlier this week and bearishness is seen for further weakness to previous support at 1.5860 and then 1.5842, however, break of latter support is needed to retain bearishness and bring a stronger retracement of recent entire rise from 1.5603 but near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.5807 support. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3270Yesterday’s selloff on dollar’s broad-based strength together with the breach of 1.3251 support confirm top has been formed at 1.3385 earlier and consolidation with downside bias is seen for retracement of recent upmove from 1.3005 towards previous support at 1.3134, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.3100 and risk from there is seen for a rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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