Thursday, April 19, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-19-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Recover after Jobless Claims, Euro Soft Despite Spanish Auction

Dollar is attempting to recover in early US session as Euro, and Europeans stocks, weaken in spite of a mildly successful Spanish bond auction. Sentiments were also weighed down mildly as employment data from US missed expectation. Initial jobless claims fell slightly to 386k in the week ended April 14 but was much higher than expectation of a drop to 366k. The four week moving average rose to 374.75k. Continuing claim also rose by 26k in the week ended April 7 to 3.3m. Overall, initial claim is back above 380k for the second consecutive week and raised some doubt on the momentum in job market growth.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3072; (P) 1.3106 (R1) 1.3155; More.....

Despite some volatility, EUR/USD continues to stay in range of 1.2994 and 1.3212 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, below 1.2994 will extend the whole fall from 1.3486 to 1.2625 low. On the upside, however, break of 1.3212 will ague that choppy decline from 1.3486 is merely a correction and has finished. In such case, bias will be flipped back to the upside for 1.3385 and above to retest 1.3486.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD CPI Q/Q Q1 0.50% 0.60% -0.30%
22:45 NZD CPI Y/Y Q1 1.60% 1.60% 1.80%
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Mar -0.62T -0.43T -0.31T -0.32T
01:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Q1 -1 1
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 386K 366K 380K 388K
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr A -19 -19.1
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Apr 12 12.5
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Mar 4.61M 4.59M
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Mar 0.20% 0.70%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 10B 8B

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Despite intra-day brief rise to 1.3166, the single currency has retreated quite sharply in part due to the rumors of a French downgrade, however, bids from Asian and Eastern European names are still noted at 1.3055-60 with some stops placed below 1.3050 but fresh buying interests should emerge around 1.3030 and 1.3000-10 with stops building up below 1.2990. On the upside, offers from funds are tipped at 1.3165-75 with stops placed above 1.3180 and mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.3210-20. Option expires today include 1.3070, 1.3050 and 1.3025 (all NY cut).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5985

As the British pound has retreated after intra-day rise to 1.6078, suggesting a minor top is formed and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for retracement to 1.6000, however, previous resistance at 1.5985 should limit downside and attract renewed buying interest, bring another rise. A break of said resistance would signals recent upmove has resumed and further gain to 1.6095-00 would be seen

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0280

Despite this week’s rebound from 1.0305, above resistance at 1.0453 is needed to signal the rebound from 1.0226 (last week’s low) is still in progress for retracement of recent decline to previous resistance at 1.0470 and then 1.0500, however, reckon previous resistance at 1.0555-60 would hold from here and bring another decline later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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