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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Aussie Soft after RBA, European Majors FirmMarkets remain mixed in Asian session today. Dollar is seen soft against Sterling and Japanese yen but is bounded in right range against Euro. Overnight's strong rebound in crude oil sent USD/CAD sharply lower through 0.9900 level but no follow through selling is seen today yet. Aussie's recovery lost momentum and weakened after RBA statement. The strong rebound in EUR/AUD is raising the prospect of rally resumption. While the Japanese yen rebounded sharply yesterday, it's still seen as a leg in side recent correction pattern. We'd anticipate yen's selloff to resume later this week. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/AUD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2740; (P) 1.2803; (R1) 1.2845; More. EUR/AUD's retreat was contained at 1.2741 and recovered after drawing support from 4 hours 55 EMA. Intraday bias is mildly back on the upside for 1.2900 and 1.2927 resistance. Break will confirm resumption of whole rise from 1.2132. And, more importantly, decisive break of 1.2927 resistances will have larger bullish implication and should at least push for further rise to 61.8% retracement of 1.3808 to 1.2132 at 1.3168 and above. On the downside, below 1.2741 will bring deeper pull back. But after all, near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 1.2623 support holds and another rally is in favor. |
| Special Reports |
RBA Stands Aside For Fourth MonthThe RBA, as expected, left the cash rate unchanged at 4.25% in April. Although macroeconomic data during the intermeeting period came in weaker than expected, policymakers believed it is prudent to take more time gauging forthcoming data for assessing the growth outlook. The central bank cited improvement in financial market sentiment, robust household spending would continue to support expansion. Policymakers acknowledged that the world economy will grow at a below-trend pace this year, given a number of countries in Europe expected to suffer from economic contraction and China’s growth has been moderating. Yet, there’s no indication of 'a deep downturn' so far. EU Ministers Beefs Up Firewall, Next Focus On IMFEU finance ministers announced to boost the firewall after the Eurogroup meeting in Copenhagen last Friday. The ESM is now expected to work in parallel with the EFSF. While the headlines said that the rescue fund is now increased to 800B euro, 300B euro of which has already been allocated for bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The expansion this time is rather modest, the least among the options anticipated by the market. It remained a concern whether other IMF members (non-EU members) would be willing to inject further liquidity to help the region in its sovereign crisis. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite falling sharply from yesterday’s high of 1.3381, the single currency found good support at 1.3278 and staged a strong rebound from there on buying by Asian and Eastern European names, offers at 1.3340 were filled, however, option defensive offers remain at 1.3380-90 (for protection of 1.3400 barrier) with stops placed above 1.3410 but fresh offers are likely to emerge around 1.3440-50. On the downside, some fair size bids are tipped at 1.3310-15 and bigger buy orders are located at 1.3275-80, followed by mixture of bids and stops at 1.3250-55. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5950Although the British pound has rebounded after holding above the Ichimoku cloud top, break of yesterday’s high of 1.6063 is needed to signal recent upmove has resumed and extend gain to 1.6090-00, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp rise beyond there and reckon price would falter well below 1.6140-50 Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3280Despite yesterday’s retreat from 1.3381 to 1.3278, the subsequent rebound has retained our view that further consolidation within 1.3251-1.3385 range would be seen and said support should continue to hold, bring another rise to indicated upper level. Once this resistance is penetrated, this would confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend rise from 1.3005 to 1.3400 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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