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Daily Report: Sentiments Weighed Down by China Investment Data, Dollar Recovers MildlyDollar regains some ground in Asian session today as sentiments are dragged down by China equity markets. Data from China's Ministry of Commerce showed foreign direct investment dropped for the fifth consecutive month by -6.1% yoy in March to $11.76b. Total number for Q1 dropped -2.8% yoy to $29.48b. FDI from EU dropped sharply by -31.2% to $1.4b in Q1 highlighting the impact from European debt crisis. Some analysts noted that the droop in FDI also indicates reduced attractiveness of China due to yuan's appreciation in recent years and domestic inflation. And, it's believed that FDI will reduce the country's external surplus and thus lower the pressure for yuan to appreciate. Nonetheless, today's data still leaves China on course to meet it's target of average of $120b a year in the next four years. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0317; (P) 1.0348; (R1) 1.0385; More Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for retesting 1.0225 low. As noted before, AUD/USD is kept well below 1.0636 resistance and thus, fall from 1.0852 is still in progress. Such decline is treated as a falling leg inside the consolidation pattern from 1.1079. Below 1.0225 will target 0.9663 support and possibly below. On the upside, above 1.0452 will bring another rise towards 1.0636 resistance instead. |
| Special Reports |
RBA's May Decision Depends on CPI DataThe April RBA minutes signaled that policymakers did not consider cutting interest rates appropriate at the meeting, despite softer employment market and downward revision in economic assessments. The possibility of a rate cut appears lower than what is priced in the market. Yet, the CPI print for 1Q12 would be a key determining factor for the monetary decision. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite tripping 1.3000 option barrier yesterday, the single currency found very decent demand just below there and staged a strong rebound from 1.2995 to as high as 1.3148 (in New York, buy stop orders at 1.3100 were triggered) before retreating this morning. At the moment, bids from U.S. investment bank (who also bought the pair aggressively yesterday) are noted at 1.3070 and 1.3040-50 with mixture of bids and stops seen at 1.2990-00. On the upside, offers from funds and European names are tipped at 1.3120 and 1.3145-50 with stops building up above latter level and 1.3185-90. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Exit long entered at 0.9150 and buy at 0.9100Although the greenback has rebounded after yesterday’s selloff to 0.9139, reckon the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.9200 would limit upside and near term downside risk remains for marginal weakness below said support, however, still reckon last week’s low at 0.9092 would limit downside and bring another rebound later. Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5950Although cable has retreated after faltering below the Ichimoku cloud top, yesterday’s strong rebound from 1.5819 suggests further consolidation above recent low of 1.5805 would be seen and another test of said resistance cannot be ruled out, however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, upside should be limited to 1.5950-60 and bring another decline later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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