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| Action Insight | Candlesticks Trades | Markets Summary | Action Bias | Top Movers | Daily Technicals |
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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Mid-Day Report: Sentiments Recover Mildly on US Retail Sales, Euro Soft on Spanish YieldSentiments improve mildly in early US session as data showed US retail sales rose a solid 0.8% in March while ex auto sales also rose 0.8%. That compares to consensus of 0.4% and 0.6% respectively. Nonetheless, other data from US are far from being impressive. Empire state manufacturing index dropped much more than expected from 20.21 to 6.6 in March. TIC capital flow rose merely 10.1b in February. DOW futures point to higher open but strong resistance would likely be seen between 12900/13000 to limit upside. We'd still favor more downside in risks and upside in dollar. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 80.70; (P) 80.91; (R1) 81.10; More... Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for the moment and current fall from 84.17 should target 61.8% retracement of 76.02 to 84.17 at 79.13 next. On the upside, break of 81.19 resistance is need to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish. |
| Special Reports |
The Possibility of Fed's QE3Speeches from Fed officials have been directing market expectations of QE3. The FOMC minutes for the March meeting indicated that policymakers saw less urgency to implement QE3 due to improvement in the economic backdrop. Yet, the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech regarding stimulus and the job market, and Vice Chairman Janet Yellen's comment that 'a highly accommodative policy stance to be appropriate' have once again sparked speculations on QE3. The current developments suggest that further QE is still likely, but only after completion of Operation Twist and upon rapid deterioration of economic growth. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency tumbled last Friday in part due to the release of weaker-than-expected China’s Q1 GDP data and stops below 1.3090 and 1.3050 were triggered and bids at 1.3030 were also filled, mixture of bids and stops at 1.3000-10 (related to 1.3000 barrier) is now in focus, more stops are placed below 1.2970 and 1.2950. On the upside, offers are reported at 1.3050-60 and also at 1.3090-00 with some stops building up above 1.3100 and also above 1.3150. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9170As the greenback has retreated after intra-day brief rise to 0.9251 (just faltered below indicated previous resistance at 0.9254), suggesting consolidation would be seen and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9199) is likely, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 0.9170/75 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9092-0.9251) and bring another rise. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 106.00Friday’s selloff signals recent decline is still in progress and bearishness remains for the decline from 111.43 top to bring a stronger retracement of recent upmove for further weakness to 104.20-25 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 97.04-111.43), however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 113.45-50 (previous resistance) Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights
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