Thursday, March 8, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-8-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Extends Rebound on Greece, Firm after ECB

Euro recovers strongly today on optimism that Greece will successfully complete the PSI debt swap deal. The common currency also maintain gains after ECB left rates unchanged at 1.00% as widely expected. In the post meeting press conference, ECB President Draghi said that recent data “confirm signs of a stabilization in the euro area economy,” even though it's still subject to downside risks. He expects Eurozone to "recover gradually in the course of this year" but the debt crisis could "dampen the underlying growth momentum." Draghi noted that inflation will likely stay above 2% this year with "upside risks prevailing". In updated projections, inflation is expected to average 2.4% in 2012, up from prior projection of 2.0%. GDP is projected to contract -0.1%, down from prior projection of 0.3% growth. The comments are considered hawkish by some analysts and provide some support to the common currency.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 80.70; (P) 80.96; (R1) 81.34; More...

USD/JPY continues to stay in range below 81.86 short term top and intraday bias remains neutral. Another fall could be seen to 80.58 and below as consolidation continues. But downside is expected to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 76.02 to 81.86 at 79.62 and bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 81.86 will target a test on 85.51 key resistance level.

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Special Report

China Watch: China To Seek Lower Growth, Widen RMB Floating Band

While we are just in the beginning of the annual National People's Congress in Beijing (started on March 5 and is expected to last for 10 days), several surprises have already been delivered. First, regarding the economic outlook, Premier Wen Jiabao announced moderate goals for economic growth, inflation and money supply. GDP growth for 2012 will be around 7.5%, faltering below the 8% target over the past 8 years. Inflation will stay at around 4% while M2 growth at 14%. The set of targets signals that the Chinese government accepts slower growth in the medium-term. Meanwhile, the PBOC governor Zhou Xiaochuan indicated that China is considering 'appropriately' widening the trading band for the RMB.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
20:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q4 F -0.20% -0.20% -0.60%
23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 F -1.80% -1.60% -1.60%
23:50 JPY Nominal GDP Q/Q Q4 F -0.50% -0.30% -0.80%
23:50 JPY GDP Annualized Q4 F -0.70% -0.60% -2.30%
23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Jan 0.12T 0.33T 0.75T 0.78T
00:30 AUD Employment Change Feb -15.4K 5.0K 46.3K 46.2K
00:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Feb 5.20% 5.20% 5.10%
05:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Feb 45.9 46 44.1
06:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Feb P -8.60% -6.90%
08:15 CHF CPI M/M Feb 0.30% 0.20% -0.40%
08:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Feb -0.90% -0.90% -0.80%
11:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Jan 1.60% 1.10% -2.90% -2.60%
12:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
12:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target Mar 325B 325B 325B
12:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Feb 2.00% 38.90%
12:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
13:15 CAD Housing Starts Feb 201K 197.5K 197.9K
13:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
13:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Jan 0.10% 0.40% 0.10%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 362K 350K 351K
14:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -85B -82B

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency rallied throughout Asian and European session on active buying by U.S. custodian names and stops above 1.3245-55 were triggered, however, offers are still noted from 1.3260 up to 1.3280 with more stops placed above 1.3285-90 but fresh offers are expected to emerge around 1.3300 and 1.3330-40. On the downside, bids from same parties plus Asian names are lined up at 1.3200-10 and also 1.3160-70 with mixture of bids and stops seen at 1.3120-25 and sizeable stops are building up below 1.3090.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5750

Although cable has retreated after intra-day rise to 1.5832 and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5765) is likely, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5743) would limit downside and bring another rebound, a break of said resistance would bring a stronger retracement of recent decline from 1.5993 top towards 1.5880-84 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5993-1.5698 and previous resistance)

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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Sell at 0.8430

As the single currency has rebounded again today, suggesting near term upside risk remains for retracement of the fall from 0.8506 and gain to 0.8430 cannot be ruled out, however, if our view that top has been formed at 0.8506 is correct, previous support at 0.8441 would cap upside and bring another decline later. A break of last week’s low of 0.8314 would extend weakness to 0.8300, then indicated support at 0.8264

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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