Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-6-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Risk Aversion Dominates as Greece Worries Continue

Risk aversion dominates the market today as global equities extend this week's slide. Investors are getting nervous as the Greek PSI debt swap deadline approaches. There have been rumors that Greece could extend the March 8 deadline to improve participation, but that was denied. EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Rehn expressed his confidence that the PSI deal would be successfully concluded. But markets are clearly not comforted by the words. 12 of the creditors steering committee agreed to join in the debt swap deal so far, those declared should be holding around 20% of the bonds. It should be noted that Greece must achieve 66% participation to avoid disorderly default this month; above 75% to avoid activating CAC which could be deemed as default by ISDA.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3171; (P) 1.3206 (R1) 1.3252; More....

EUR/USD's fall from 1.3486 resumed after brief and weak recovery and reaches as low as 1.3120 so far in early US session. The break of near term channel support argues that whole rebound from 1.2625 has finished with three waves up to 1.3486 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.2974 support for confirmation. Also, noted that EUR/USD is still maintaining the pattern of lower highs, lower lows since 1.4939. Below 1.2974 will also suggest that fall from 1.4939 is resuming for another flow below 1.2625. On the upside, above 1.3241 minor resistances will turn bias neutral first.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:30 AUD Current Account Balance (AUD) Q4 -8.4B -7.9B -5.6B -5.8B
3:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 4.25% 4.25% 4.25%
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 P -0.30% -0.30% -0.30%
15:00 CAD Ivey PMI Feb 62 64.1

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency slipped again today on rumors that Greek PSI deadline will delay and stops below 1.3150 were tripped, however, bids from Asian and semi-official names are reported further out at 1.3100-10 with more stops placed below 1.3100 option barrier. On the upside, whilst some stops are placed above 1.3165-70, offers are tipped at 1.3180 and also 1.3220-30 with more stops building up above 1.3250 and also 1.3285-90. Option expires today include 1.3200, 1.3250 and 1.3350.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5880

Cable’s intra-day selloff suggests bearishness remains for the fall from 1.5993 top to bring a stronger retracement of recent upmove to 1.5750 and possibly to previous support at 1.5721, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.5690-00 and reckon another minor support at 1.5682 would limit downside, the British pound should stay well above support at 1.5644-48.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 106.15

Although euro rebounded after falling to 106.92 yesterday, as long as resistance at 108.02 (yesterday’s high) holds, near term downside risk remains for retracement of recent upmove to 106.85-90 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 101.93-109.95), however, reckon 106.15-20 would limit downside and bring another rebound later. Above said resistance at 108.02 would bring test of Friday’s high of 108.47

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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