Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Action Insight Daily Report 3-20-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Risk Appetite Recedes as China Growth Concern Drags Down Equities

Risk appetite recedes mildly today as China's stock market leads Asian equities lower on growth concern. China's National Development and Reform Commission raised domestic retail energy prices effective today. That's the second move in less than two months. Even though that still leaves a wide gap between international and domestic prices, investors are worrying that higher energy costs will drag down the already slowing Chinese economy. Separately, a BHP Billiton executive said that China's demand for iron ore is "flattening out" and demand for steel will drop to "single digit". A Rio Tinto executive also said that China's growth is more immediately slowing even though it's a case of soft landing.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.47; (P) 110.02; (R1) 110.86; More

EUR/JPY's rally resumed after brief retreat and reaches as high as 110.56 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside and current rally should target 111.57 key resistance next. As noted before, fall from 123.31 has likely finished on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 111.57 will affirm this bullish case and target 123.31 key resistance next. On the downside, below 109.17 will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But after all, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 105.64 support holds.

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Special Report

RBA Left Interest rates Unchanged due to Less Downside Risks

The RBA unveiled in the March minutes a more optimistic outlook. The reason for leaving the policy rate unchanged was lessened downside risks in global economic outlook. Moreover, policymakers appeared to have weighed the gains from the mining investment boom again strength in Australian dollar. Overall, the central bank has moved to a neutral monetary bias from an easing one in previous meetings.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:00 NZD Westpac NZ Consumer Confidence Q1 102.4 101.3
0:30 AUD RBA Minutes
7:00 EUR German PPI M/M Feb 0.50% 0.60%
7:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Feb 3.20% 3.40%
8:15 CHF Industrial Production Q/Q Q4 2.60% -1.40%
9:30 GBP CPI M/M Feb 0.40% -0.50%
9:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Feb 3.30% 3.60%
9:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Feb 2.30% 2.60%
9:30 GBP RPI M/M Feb 0.60% -0.60%
9:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Feb 3.50% 3.90%
11:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Mar -5 -3
12:30 USD Housing Starts Feb 700K 699K
12:30 USD Building Permits Feb 685K 676K

Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

JPY: Although dollar rebounded after yesterday's brief fall to 83.02, offers from exporters capped price at 83.57 and offers are still noted at 83.60-70 and more selling interest is tipped at 83.90-00 with stops building up above 84.00, followed by mixtures of offers and stops at 84.15-25 and also 84.50-60. On the downside, bids from various names (including U.S. and Japanese investors) are lined up from 83.00 down to 82.80 (large), some stops are placed below 82.60 but fresh demand should emerge around 82.50 and 82.10-20 with bigger stops placed below 81.90-95.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3150

Yesterday’s rally and the breach of previous resistance at 1.3192 signals the rise from 1.3005 low is still in progress and although price has retreated from 1.3265 and test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3204) is likely, downside should be limited to previous resistance at 1.3188 and renewed buying interest should emerge above the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.3146), bring another rally.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 82.40

Although dollar rebounded after finding support at 83.02 yesterday, break of last Friday’s high of 83.95 is needed to signal the pullback from 84.19 has ended and bring retest of this level, above there would extend recent upmove towards 84.50 but loss of near term upward momentum should limit upside to 84.75-80 and price should falter well below psychological resistance at 85.00.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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