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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Mid-Day Report: European Majors Tumble Broadly as Spain Revised Deficit TargetEuropean majors are soldoff sharply today, along with European stocks, as Spanish prim minister Rajoy said that the country will base its 2012 budget on a deficit target of 5.8% of GDP. That's clearly much less ambitious than the official EU agreed target of 4.4%. Euro, Sterling and Swiss Franc fall sharply even though the fiscal accord was finally signed by 25 EU member states. Commodity currencies, though, are relatively steady as supported by buying against European majors in crosses. Dollar index is back above 79 level and is trading at 79.31 at the time of writing. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3276; (P) 1.3316 (R1) 1.3351; More.... EUR/USD drops further to as low as 1.3205 so far in early US session as correction from 1.3486 continues. Intraday bias remains on the downside for near term channel support (now at 1.3138). Note again that near term outlook remains bullish as long as EUR/USD stays inside this channel and another rise is in favor. Above 1.3332 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside. Break of 1.3486 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4246 to 1.2625 at 1.3627 next. However, sustained break of the channel support will indicate near term reversal and turn focus to 1.2974 support for confirmation. |
| Special Reports |
No Signals Of QE3 Disappointed InvestorsIn the testimony before the House Committee, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was less downbeat on the macroeconomic outlook. He stated that 'pace of the expansion has been uneven and modest by historical standard'. Yet, growth in the coming quarters is likely to be 'at a pace close to or somewhat above the pace that was registered during the second half of last year'. He also acknowledged positive developments in the job market including job gains that were 'relatively widespread across industries' and the 'more rapid than expected' decline in the unemployment rate over the past year. ECB Allotted over 500B Euro in LTROThe ECB has allotted 529.5B euro of 3-year LTRO to 800 banks. Together with the first auction, the central bank has injected 1trillion of 3-year funds into the system. This amount equals to 131% total European bank bond maturities in 2012 and 72% for 2012 and 2013 combined. The average allotment is 0.66B euro, compared with 1B euro in December 2011 and 0.40B euro in June 2009. The total number of bidders is huge, suggesting participation of a lot of small banks. The ECB would probably view the result as positive as it's expected that the funds will be passed to the real economy. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite the release of slightly higher-than-expected EU PPI data, the single currency extended recent decline on active selling by model funds since the release of very soft German retail sales data, stops below 1.3240 and 1.3220 were triggered, mixture of bids (from Middle East, and Asian CBs) and stops at 1.3190-00 is now in focus, more stops are placed below 1.3180 but bids are likely to emerge around 1.3150. On the upside, offers from same parties are lined up from 1.3280 up to 1.3300 and also at 1.3330 with stops building up above 1.3340 and 1.3360. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Hold short entered at 81.45The greenback has broken above previous resistance at 81.66 on dollar’s broad-based strength, however, as long as 81.75-80 holds, consolidation would be seen and mild downside bias remains for a retreat to take place, below the Kijun-Sen (now at 81.32) would bring test of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 80.97) but break of the lower Kumo (now at 80.79, this would also penetrate support at 80.83) is needed to signal top is formed Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 106.80Euro’s near term sideways trading is expected to continue and as price has retreated after faltering below resistance at 108.73-74, mild downside bias is seen and another test of support at 107.20 cannot be ruled out, however, still reckon 106.85-90 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 101.93-109.95) would limit downside and bring another rise later. A sustained breach of said resistance at 108.74 would suggest the pullback from 109.95 has possibly ended Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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