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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Mid-Day Report: Euro Selloff Resumes after Brief RecoveryEuro tried to stabilize on solid Spanish bond auction an ISDA's comment that there is no credit event in Greece. But selloff resumes in early US session with EUR/USD breaking through 1.33 level. Dollar index resumes yesterday's rebound and is heading towards 79 level. Gold 's recovery also lost steam and is heading back towards 1700 level. DOW has failed to sustain above 13000 level on multiple attempts recently. Stocks are vulnerable to a sizeable pull back and if that happens, dollar would likely be boosted higher. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3411; (P) 1.3441 (R1) 1.3493; More.... EUR/USD's fall from 1.3486 continues further today and reaches as low as 1.3281 so far today. Intraday bias remains mildly on the downside for deeper fall to near term channel support (now at 1.3126). However, note again that near term outlook remains bullish as long as EUR/USD stays inside this channel and another rise is in favor. Above 1.3356 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside. Break of 1.3486 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4246 to 1.2625 at 1.3627 next. However, sustained break of the channel support will indicate near term reversal and turn focus to 1.2974 support for confirmation. |
| Special Reports |
No Signals Of QE3 Disappointed InvestorsIn the testimony before the House Committee, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was less downbeat on the macroeconomic outlook. He stated that 'pace of the expansion has been uneven and modest by historical standard'. Yet, growth in the coming quarters is likely to be 'at a pace close to or somewhat above the pace that was registered during the second half of last year'. He also acknowledged positive developments in the job market including job gains that were 'relatively widespread across industries' and the 'more rapid than expected' decline in the unemployment rate over the past year. ECB Allotted over 500B Euro in LTROThe ECB has allotted 529.5B euro of 3-year LTRO to 800 banks. Together with the first auction, the central bank has injected 1trillion of 3-year funds into the system. This amount equals to 131% total European bank bond maturities in 2012 and 72% for 2012 and 2013 combined. The average allotment is 0.66B euro, compared with 1B euro in December 2011 and 0.40B euro in June 2009. The total number of bidders is huge, suggesting participation of a lot of small banks. The ECB would probably view the result as positive as it's expected that the funds will be passed to the real economy. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency has remained under pressure after yesterday's Bernanke inspired selloff and mixture of bids and stops at 1.3290-00 is now in focus and more stops in good size are placed below 1.3270 but fresh demand from Asian names is expected to emerge further out at 1.3240-50 with more stops placed below 1.3190-00. On the upside, offers from U.S. names are lined up at 1.3340-50 and also 1.3380, then 1.3400 with some stops building up above 1.3430 and 1.3450, option defensive offers in very good size (1 yard) are still noted at 1.3490-00 for protection of barrier at 1.3500. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5810Despite yesterday’s rally to 1.5979, the subsequent euro-led retreat signals a temporary top has been formed and retracement of recent rise to 1.5895-00 and then to the lower Kumo (now at 1.5879), however, renewed buying interest should emerge above support at 1.5801, bring another rise later. Only a breach of 1.5993-1.6000 (yesterday’s high and the psychological resistance would extend recent upmove to 1.6030 Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 106.80Despite euro’s rebound to 108.74, the subsequent retreat suggests further consolidation would be seen and another test of support at 107.20 cannot be ruled out, however, still reckon 106.85-90 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 101.93-109.95) would limit downside and bring another rise later. A sustained breach of said resistance at 108.74 would suggest the pullback from 109.95 has possibly ended and bring further gain to 109.50 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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