Monday, March 12, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-12-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Steady ahead of EU Meeting, Greece Bailout Approval Expected, Spain in Focus

Despite dipping initially as the week started, there was no follow through selling in Euro so far and the common currency settles in tight range as traders are awaiting EU finance minister's meeting. While the approval of Greece's second bailout of EUR 130b b is widely expected, another focus will be the "serious" discussion on Spain. Spain aimed at a budget deficit of 0.6% of GDP in 2012 but in the end reported to 8.5%. Originally, the budget target agreed with EU finance ministers was 4.4% of GDP this year. But Spanish prime minister announced to rise the target to 5.8% earlier this month. EU officials saw no clear reason for that and Rajoy is expected to clarify any misunderstandings today. It's important for EU to maintain it's credibility just after signing the fiscal compact earlier this year.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5609; (P) 1.5721; (R1) 1.5779; More...

GBP/USD drops further to as low as 1.5605 so far in early US session. The strong break of 1.5648 support confirmed that rebound from 1.5234 is finished at 1.5991 already. Intraday bias remains on the downside and further fall should be seen to 1.5234 low. Also note again that recent development indicates that whole decline form 1.6746 is still in progress. Break of 1.5234 will target 1.5 psychological level next. On the upside, above 1.5694 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first before staging another fall.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Jan 3.40% 2.30% -7.10%
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI M/M Feb 0.20% 0.20% -0.10%
5:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Household Feb 39.5 40.5 40
18:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement Feb -229.3B -27.4B

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound ran into fresh offers just below 1.5700 and tumbled on selling by model funds (for stop-hunting), stops at 1.5640 and 1.5620 were tripped, however, decent demand from Middle East and Asian sovereign names are still noted in the region of 1.5600-20 with more stops placed below 1.5600. On the upside, offers are now noted at 1.5650 and sizeable sell orders remain at 1.5695-00 with some stops building up above there and fresh offers are expected to emerge around 1.5740-50.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5740

Although cable has fallen again after intra-day brief bounce to 1.5696, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.5600 and risk has increased for a minor correction back to said resistance, however, still reckon price would falter well below the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5766) and bring another decline but still reckon 1.5550-60 would hold from here, bring a much needed correction later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0650

Despite rebounding to 1.0670 last week, aussie has fallen again on broad-based strength in the greenback, suggesting the fall from 1.0857 is still in progress and further weakness to 1.0470 would be seen, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to previous support at 1.0425-30. Looking ahead, once this support is being penetrated, this would bring a stronger retracement of recent upmove to 1.0400

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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