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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Extends Rally as Gold Plunges, After Solid Retail SalesDollar's rally resumes in early US session even though risk sentiments is firm. Gold is trading back below 1700 level and selloff in gold gives the greenback some support. Additional support is given to dollar from solid retail sales data. Headline sales jumped 1.1% in February, above expectation of 1.0% and was the best number in five months. Ex-auto sales also beat expectation and rose 0.9%. Data from Eurozone was solid today with German ZEW economic sentiment rose to 21-month high of 22.3 in March. The data gave strong boost to European indices but provided no support to Euro. Other data released today saw UK trade deficit slightly narrower than expectation at GBP -7.5b in January. Swiss combined PPI improved to -1.9% yoy in February. Australia NAB business confidence dropped to 1 in February. UK RICS house price balance improved to -13 in February. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 82.04; (P) 82.29; (R1) 82.46; More... USD/JPY's rally resumed after brief consolidation and reaches as high as 82.62 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside and current rise from 76.02 is expected to target 85.51 key resistance next. On the downside, below 81.96 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But retreat should be contained above 80.58 support and bring another rally. |
| Featured Technical Report |
BOJ Expands Loan Scheme To Stimulate GrowthAfter the two-day BOJ meeting, policymakers announced to expand a loan scheme, by 2 trillion yen, to 5.5 trillion yen. A board member did propose further easing by increasing the central bank's asset purchases by 5 trillion but failed to gain support from others. Indeed, the loan scheme extension can also be considered as monetary easing but the magnitude and the form are probably insufficient to boost the Japanese economy and inflation. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: Dollar extended intra-day rally from 81.97 in New York morning in part due to the release of slightly higher-than-expected U.S. data and stops above 82.70 were triggered, however, more selling interests are tipped from 82.85 up to large option barrier at 83.00 with bigger stops placed above there. On the downside, bids from U.S. investment banks and Japanese investors are noted at 82.40-50 and also 82.00 with stops building up below 81.80-90 and also 81.40-50. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Target met and stand asideDespite intra-day initial rise to 1.3192, the subsequent retreat after meeting renewed selling interest just below the Ichimoku cloud top has justified our bearishness and indicated target at 1.3080 has been met, however, a sustained break of support at 1.3079 (yesterday’s low) is needed to signal recent decline from 1.3486 top has resumed and extend weakness to 1.3050 and possibly 1.3030 Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0650Although aussie resumed the decline from 1.0857 top to as low as 1.0473 yesterday, weakening of downward momentum has increased risk of a rebound and recovery to 1.0600 is likely, however, renewed selling interest should emerge below resistance at 1.0665-70 and bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend the fall from 1.0857 top to 1.0450 but near term oversold condition should limit downside to previous support at 1.0425-30. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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