Monday, March 26, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-26-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: EUR/USD Broke 1.33 after German Ifo Surprise

Euro staged a strong rebound earlier today as sentiments were generally lifted by better than expected Germany data. German Ifo business climate unexpectedly rose for the fifth month in a row to 109.8 in March, hitting an eight-month high. The current assessment component was unchanged at 117.4 while expectations component also improved to 102.7. Sentiment were given a boost a week less than the much worse than expected manufacturing PMI released last week. However, the details aren't that promising as the gauges of manufacturing, construction and wholesaling all deteriorated even though trade & industry and retailing showed improvements. After all, EUR/USD managed to break through 1.33 handle together with rally in major European indices. The development should clear the near term picture and deeper selloff would likely be seen.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3206; (P) 1.3249 (R1) 1.3309; More....

After brief retreat, EUR/USD jumps sharply to as high as 1.3323 in early US session. The break of 1.3293 resistance confirmed resumption of rise from 1.3003. More importantly, the development indicates that pull back from 1.3486 has completed already and the corrective structure suggests that rise from 1.2625 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.3486 first. Break will confirm this bullish case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.4246 to 1.2625 at 1.3627 next. on the downside, below 1.3191 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn bias neutral first.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Feb 161M 153M -199M -159M
9:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Mar 109.8 109.6 109.6 109.7
9:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Mar 117.4 117 117.5 117.4
9:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Mar 102.7 102.6 102.3 102.4
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Feb 1.00% 2.00%

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency rallied on dollar's broad-based weakness against European currencies in part due to negative comments from Fed's Bernanke on labour market, option barrier at 1.3300 was tripped and stops at 1.3320 were also triggered, however, more selling interests should emerge around 1.3340-50 with more stops placed above 1.3355-60. On the downside, bids from various parties (including short-term specs and Asian names) are lined up from 1.3290 down to 1.3250 (every 10 points interval) and more buying interest should emerge around 1.3220-30 with stops building up below 1.3190 and 1.3170.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3240

As the single currency found renewed buying interest at 1.3190 and has rallied in European session, the breach of resistance at 1.3294 signals recent rise from 1.3005 is still in progress and further gain to 1.3350 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.3370-80 and risk from there has increased for a retreat later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 110.60

Last week’s selloff from 111.43 to 108.49 suggests a temporary top has been formed there and although price has rebounded from 108.49, upside should be limited to 110.50-60 and price should falter well below said resistance and bring another decline later. Below said support would extend the fall from 111.43 top for a stronger retracement of recent upmove to 108.00 and then 107.85

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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