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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Sentiments Lifted as Greece Passed PSI Hurdle, But Markets Cautious Again Ahead of NFPSentiments are further lifted today as Greece has successfully completed the PSI bond swap deal. The Ministry of Finance just confirmed that participation rate reached as 85.8%. And Greek government is optimistic that after activating the collective action clauses, overall participation could surpass 95%. Greece has cleared an important hurdle in securing the second EUR 130b bailout from EU. Finance Minister Venizelos will have a call with Eurozone finance ministers later today on the progress while IMF will discuss the bailout for Greece on March 13. EUR/USD recovered strongly cover high but faced some resistance ahead of 1.33 level. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 107.09; (P) 107.78; (R1) 108.96; More As noted before, EUR/JPY's pull back from 109.83 has likely completed at 105.64 after drawing support from mentioned 38.2% retracement of 99.24 to 109.83 at 105.78. Intraday bias remains mildly on the upside for 109.83 resistance. Break will confirm resumption of rally from 97.03. We're favoring the case that fall from 123.31 has finished on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Above 109.83 will target 111.57 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 105.64 will invalidate this bullish case and will flip bias back to the downside for near term trend line support (now at 103.98). |
| Special Report |
Review of Central Bank Meetings of the WeekECB - As expected, the ECB also left the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1.0%. President Draghi, however, delivered a less dovish monetary stance at the policy statement as well as at the press conference, with the focus on upside risks to inflation. Draghi stated that the market condition has 'improved enormously' and confidence on the euro has returned. Policymakers have not signaled further easing. It appeared that the next move, despite uncertain timing, would be a reversal of the ultra accommodative policy. |
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite yesterday’s rally to 1.3291, the single currency has retreated after the announcement of Greek government of the 85.8% participation rate, however, bids are still noted at 1.3210-20 and also 1.3160-70 with sizeable bids remain at 1.3120, followed by mixture of bids and stops at 1.3090-00. On the upside, offers from various parties are placed at 1.3300-10 and combination of offers and stops are reported in the region of 1.3340-60 region. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3160Although euro has retreated after surging to an overnight high of 1.3291 and pullback to 1.3200 is likely, reckon the Ichimoku cloud (now at 1.3148-59) would limit downside and renewed buying interest should emerge there, bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would bring a stronger retracement of recent fall towards 1.3337 (previous resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3486-1.3097) Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Stand asideDespite intra-day brief breach of previous resistance at 81.87, lack of follow through buying and current retreat from 81.89 suggest consolidation would be seen and pullback to 81.30 is likely, however, a breach below the Ichimoku cloud (now at 81.05-10) is needed to signal an intra-day top is formed, bring further fall to 80.80 but reckon support at 80.59 should remain intact. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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