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Mid-Day Report: Swiss Franc Jumps after SNB, Dollar Firm on DataMarkets are pretty steady today except that much volatility is seen in the Swiss Franc. EUR/CHF dived sharply and breached 1.21 level again after SNB maintained the EURCHF floor at 1.2. We'd maintain that there is no scope for sustainable rebound in the cross at least before Thomas Jordan becomes SNB president formally. Meanwhile, dollar is firm in tight range after some solid economic data from US. Empire State manufacturing index unexpectedly rose to 20.21 in March. Initial jobless claims improved to 351k. PPI moderated less than expected to 3.3% yoy in February while core PPI was unchanged at 3.0% yoy. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9245; (P) 0.9288; (R1) 0.9348; More.... A temporary top is in place in USD/CHF at 0.9334 and intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. But downside should be contained by 0.9071/9201 support zone and bring another rise. Prior break of 0.9300 resistance confirmed that decline from 0.9594 has completed with three waves down to 0.8930. Also, the corrective structure in turn indicates that whole rally from 0.7065 is still in progress. Above 0.9334 will target a test on 0.9594 high first. |
| Featured Technical Report |
SNB Leaves Policy Stance Unchanged, Pledges To Defend Minimum EUR/CHF At 1.20As expected, the SNB left its monetary policy unchanged in March. The central bank maintained the 3-month Libor target range at 0-0.25% and pledged to maintain the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro 'with utmost determination'. While acknowledging the mixed macroeconomic outlook, policymakers warned once again of the strength in the Swiss franc. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchCHF: The greenback continued to move lower from intra-day high of 0.9335 on profit-taking, no real reaction from SNB’s decision to keep rates on hold (the central reaffirmed its commitment to protect the 1.2000 EUR/CHF peg. At the moment, offers from European names are still noted at 0.9290-00 and also 0.9330-40 with stops building up above option trigger at 0.9350. On the downside, bids from Swiss names are seen at 0.9240-50 and also 0.9210-20 with stops building up below 0.9200 and 0.9180. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9210Despite intra-day marginal rise to 0.9335, lack of follow through buying on break of yesterday’s high of 0.9332 and the subsequent retreat suggest a temporary top is formed and retracement to 0.9250 would be seen, however, reckon 0.9204-08 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9072-0.9335 and current level of the lower Kumo) would limit downside and bring another rise later. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0650As aussie has recovered after anticipated marginal fall to 1.0422 (yesterday’s low of 1.0428), consolidation would be seen and retracement to 1.0550-60 is likely, however, renewed selling interest should emerge below resistance at 1.0665-70 and bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend the fall from 1.0857 top to 1.0400 but near term oversold condition should limit downside to previous resistance at 1.0382-87 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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