Friday, March 30, 2012

Action Insight Daily Report 3-30-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Euro Rebound ahead of Finance Minister Meeting, Dollar Soft

Euro regained some ground against dollar as markets are awaiting Eurozone finance minister meeting in Copenhagen and markets are expecting there will be a final agreement on raising the fire power of the bailout funds. Currently, the combined lending power of the temporary EFSF and the permanent ESM is capped at EUR 500b even though both funds will run in parallel for a year. According to a draft statement by the press, Eurozone finance ministers would agree to raise the combined firepower to EUR 940b in case of emergency over the next 15 months. Germany is believed to be still opposing to the idea as finance minister Schaeuble said that EUR 800b should be enough. But it's believed that the EUR 940b temporary cap is somewhat a compromise between Germany and other member states.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5891; (P) 1.5924; (R1) 1.5989; More...

GBP/USD rises to as high as 1.6032 so far today and the break of 1.6000 confirms resumption of recent rally. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.6165 key cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.6746 to 1.5234 at 1.6168). Decisive break there will have larger bullish implication and would pave the way to 1.6746 resistance later. On the downside, break of 1.5841 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, well stay bullish even in case of retreat.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Feb -6.70% 0.00% 8.30%
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Mar -31 -29 -29
23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Mar 51.1 50.5
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Feb 4.50% 4.60% 4.60%
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Feb 2.30% -0.50% -2.30%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Mar -0.30% -0.30% -0.30%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Feb 0.10% -0.10% -0.10%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Feb P -1.20% 1.30% 1.90%
5:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Feb 7.50% -1.10% -1.10%
6:00 EUR German Retail Sales M/M Feb -1.10% 1.20% -1.60%
7:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Mar 0.08 0.07 -0.12
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Mar 2.50% 2.70%
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Jan 0.10% 0.40%
12:30 USD Personal Income Feb 0.40% 0.30%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Feb 0.60% 0.20%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Feb 2.30% 2.40%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Feb 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Feb 1.90% 1.90%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Mar 63 64
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Mar F 74.8 74.3

Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Despite falling to 1.3251 yesterday, the single currency staged a strong rise in New York and stops at 1.3305-10 and 1.3350 were triggered, however, offers are still noted at 1.3370-80 and mixture of offers and stops remains at 1.3395-05 (related to 1.3400 option barrier). On the downside, bids from Asian sovereign names are lined up from 1.3320 down to 1.3300, larger size buy orders are expected to emerge around 1.3250-60 with stops building up below yesterday's low of 1.3250 and 1.3190.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5950

Current breach of previous resistance at 1.6002 confirms recent upmove has resumed and further gain to 1.6045-50 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.6090-00 and risk from there has increased for a strong pullback to take place later today or early next week.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3300

Despite yesterday’s fall to 1.3251, the subsequent rally signals the correction from 1.3385 has ended there and a retest of this level would be seen, break there would extend recent upmove from 1.005 to 1.3400, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.3445-50 (1.618 times projection of 1.3134-1.3294 measuring from 1.3190) and risk from there has increased for a strong pullback later.

Full Report Here...

Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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