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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Rally Continues in Slightly Mixed MarketsMarkets are a bit mixed today. While dollar extends rally against the Japanese yen and aussie, it's momentum against European majors is unconvincing. Sterling has indeed attempted to rise broadly but the strength was limited after slightly disappointing job market data. Risk appetite is strong with European stocks rising for the another data. But the positive sentiments provide no support to commodity currencies. Canadian dollar is bounded in range against dollar so far. Meanwhile, Australian dollar is even worse, as weighed down by the steep decline in gold. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3026; (P) 1.3109 (R1) 1.3166; More.... Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for 1.2974 support. Break there will confirm that whole rebound from 1.2625 is finished with three waves up to 1.3486. Also, note that EUR/USD maintains a pattern of lower highs, lower lows since 1.4939 and such decline is still in progress. Break of 1.2974 should pave the way for a new low below 1.2625. On the upside, break of 1.3290 resistance is needed to signal completion of fall from 1.3486. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish even in case of recovery. |
| Featured Technical Report |
Fed Turns More Hawkish As Economic Data ImprovesAs expected, policymakers delivered a more hawkish statement after the March FOMC meeting. Changes in languages in several areas indicated that the central bank has turned more confident in the economic outlook. This has in turn lowered speculations for further QE later this year. The Fed decided to left the Fed funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% at least until late 2014 and to continue operation twist announced in September. The 'most hawkish' member Richmond Fed President Lacker dissented the decision as he believes that economic conditions are unlikely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the Fed funds rate through late 2014. BOJ Expands Loan Scheme To Stimulate GrowthAfter the two-day BOJ meeting, policymakers announced to expand a loan scheme, by 2 trillion yen, to 5.5 trillion yen. A board member did propose further easing by increasing the central bank's asset purchases by 5 trillion but failed to gain support from others. Indeed, the loan scheme extension can also be considered as monetary easing but the magnitude and the form are probably insufficient to boost the Japanese economy and inflation. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency slipped again overnight in late New York as Fed gave signs that there is no immediate need for QE3, stops below 1.3045-50 were finally triggered and stops below 1.3025 are now in focus, followed by mixture of bids and stops at 1.3000-10 (option related), fresh bids from Asian sovereign names are likely to emerge from 1.2980 down to 1.2950. On the upside, offers from various parties area lined up at 1.3070-80 and also at 1.3120-25 with some stops building up above 1.3130 and 1.3155-60. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9210The greenback found renewed buying interest around the upper Kumo and the Kijun-Sen and has rallied again, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and a test of previous resistance at 0.9300 would be seen, however, break there is needed to retain bullishness and extend headway to 0.9320-30, then towards 0.9350 but near term overbought condition should limit upside and bring correction later. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 107.15As euro has maintained a firm undertone in part due to risk appetite, retaining our view that correction from 109.95 has ended at 105.65 and bullishness remains for further gain to 109.50-60, however, it is necessary to see a breach of said resistance at 109.95 to confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend headway towards 120.40-50 later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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